Sovcombank presented its version of the “shocking forecast” for 2024
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Deputy Chairman of Sovcombank Mikhail Avtukhov made a shock presentation at the XXI Russian Bond Congress CBonds. The presentation predicts defaults, the dollar exchange rate for 200 rubles. and a high key rate. This is analogous to the shocking forecasts from the Danish bank Saxo Bank, which describes unlikely, but still possible negative events.
Sovcombank analysts admit a weakening of the national currency against the backdrop of continued geopolitical risks and possible relaxations in the requirements for the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters after the presidential elections in 2024. The cost of $1 in 2024 may exceed 200 rubles.
Another increase in the key rate by the Central Bank is also possible. According to the worst forecasts, it could reach 25%, and inflation could accelerate to 15%.
One of the negative scenarios involves a collapse in oil prices on the world market to $40 per barrel. According to analysts, this is possible in the event of the collapse of the OPEC+ cartel.
Analysts suggested that the placement of international bonds in yuan would not happen due to limited demand and high rates, and that companies would not go public due to the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy. It is emphasized that companies that cannot receive preferential financing from the state during a period of high rates will be on the verge of default.
Denmark’s Saxo Bank annually issues a “shocking forecast” for the coming year. They concern a series of unlikely and underestimated events, because of which, however, “world markets could be covered by a powerful wave.” Bank analysts predicted the “end of capitalism” in the United States and the rise of Robert Kennedy to the presidency. The world market predicts $150 per barrel of oil. The bank also expects an obesity epidemic.
More details in the material “The end of the road, the arrival of Kennedy, the obesity pandemic and oil at $150 a barrel”.
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