The Central Bank recorded a record growth in the mortgage portfolio in the third quarter – by 10.8%
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The mortgage portfolio increased by a record 10.8%, after growing by 7% a quarter earlier. The consumer loans segment grew by 5.9%, after growth of 4.5% in the second quarter, follows from the analytical report of the Central Bank of Russia (.pdf). The profit of the banking sector in the third quarter amounted to about 1 trillion rubles, which is 200 billion rubles. more than in the second quarter.
There is growth in all lending segments. Corporate loans increased by 5.9% compared to +3.8% in the second quarter. The regulator associates the increase in the portfolio with increased demand for lending from executors of government contracts, replacement of external debts and increased housing construction volumes.
The Central Bank predicts a decline in loan portfolios in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the regulator, loan portfolios will be affected by an increase in the down payment on preferential mortgages to 20%, an increase in rates and “macroprudential regulation in relation to both risky mortgages and consumer loans.”
December 5 Central Bank recorded business activity declined in the fourth quarter, but noted optimistic business expectations for the coming year and a high level of consumer optimism. Sberbank stated about a decrease in the volume of consumer loans issued by 30% in the fourth quarter. The bank reported that despite the stable level of demand, issuance decreased due to an increase in the key rate and the introduction of restrictions on lending to clients with a high debt load.
On October 27, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank raised the key rate by 200 basis points, to 15% per annum. The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, said that he would be ready to reduce the rate next year when annual inflation approaches the target of 4%.
Read more about trends in issuing preferential mortgages in Russia in the material “Preferential mortgages are freezing”.
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