The contenders for the title of the first trillionaire in history have been named

In the next ten years, the first dollar trillionaire will appear on the planet, predicts the international organization Oxfam. Behind the big names and impressive figures that fill her report, lies, alas, a superficial methodology. Yes, according to Oxfam, since 2020, the five richest people in the world have doubled their total wealth – $405 billion to $869 billion. But this absolutely does not mean that such dynamics will continue: you never know what will happen to the global economy and to the people involved themselves research…

There are some undeniable things in the report, for example, the fact that today billionaires head 7 of the 10 largest corporations in the world. Their total capitalization is $10.2 trillion, which is equivalent to the GDP of all countries in Africa and Latin America. There are no questions about the statistics confirming the colossal wealth stratification: 1% of the super-rich own 43% of all global financial assets, including 48% in the Middle East, 50% in Asia and 47% in Europe.

The number of businessmen mentioned by Oxfam analysts as contenders for trillionaires included: President of the LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy) group of companies Bernard Arnault; Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk; founder of Amazon online retail corporation Jeff Bezos; founder of software company Oracle Larry Ellison; famous investor and stock guru Warren Buffett. It is in this order that they are placed in the top 5 of the Forbes ranking, with a net capital of $207.6 billion, respectively; $204.7 billion; $181.3 billion; $142.2 billion; $127.2 billion

Over the past three years, their combined wealth has grown at three times the rate of inflation, adding an average of $14 million per hour. In annual terms, this amounts to $122 million. If only for this reason, the forecast about the emergence of a trillionaire or even several in the next decade does not look groundless. However, this plot is only an episode; the main message of the study lies elsewhere. According to the authors, since 2020, the world’s 148 largest corporations have generated net income of $1.8 trillion, paid out significant dividends to wealthy shareholders, while hundreds of millions of ordinary workers have seen their real wages cut.

But the main thing is that 60% (5 billion people) of the world’s population are below the poverty line and in the foreseeable future have no chance of qualitatively improving their situation. People everywhere work “harder and longer,” but their work remains Sisyphean. The combined incomes of 800 million workers in 52 countries have fallen by $1.5 trillion in recent years. Summary: Socio-economic inequality in the world is becoming increasingly glaring. If this trend continues, the problem of poverty will not be solved for at least another 230 years.

“We are witnessing the start of a decade in which billions of people are reeling from economic turmoil from pandemics, inflation and war, while the fortunes of billionaires soar,” said Oxfam International chief Amitabh Bihar. “This inequality is no accident: the billionaire class is doing everything it can to ensure that corporations bring them more wealth at the expense of everyone else.”

“Everything according to Marx”

Meanwhile, back in May 2020, at the peak of the covid pandemic, the small business consulting service Comparison addressed the topic of “the first trillionaire in history.” The study stated: by 2026, this will be Jeff Bezos, the richest person on the planet at the time of the forecast. After analyzing the market capitalization of the most valuable companies on the New York Stock Exchange and the fortunes of the 25 leaders on the Forbes list, Comparison concluded that Amazon was one of the few beneficiaries of the pandemic (Bezos owns 11.2% of the shares of this e-commerce giant), as demand for online shopping, streaming and delivery services are growing rapidly. In the first three months of 2020, Amazon’s sales exceeded $75 billion (a year earlier it was $60 billion), and between March and May, Jeff Bezos’s capital increased from $125 to $143 billion. However, the trend did not last relatively long, as the pandemic subsided and the the topic naturally disappeared from the global agenda.

And in 2023, Amazon shares fell by 38%, as a result, Bezos’s fortune decreased by tens of billions of dollars, and he moved from second to third position on the Forbes list. The ranking was topped by Frenchman Bernard Arnault, who earned $53 billion in a year as shares of his luxury goods corporation LVMH rose more than 13% on the stock market.

“Theoretically, the first trillionaire may well appear by 2035,” says financial analyst, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyaev. – Especially if we take into account the factor of global inflation, which leads to an increase in the price of all goods and services, to an increase in the capitalization of companies, the amount of funds in private and corporate accounts, securities, and real estate. This trend is clearly visible today, and it is extremely alarming, although it is difficult to talk about specific numbers. In general, everything is according to Marx. This is not so much about the total impoverishment of the masses, about the erosion of the middle class, but about the fact that the mechanisms of reproduction and sale of goods are stalling.”

Ordinary people with limited financial resources are not able to consume all the products that are thrown onto the market by corporations. As a result, Belyaev notes, overstocking occurs, a crisis of overproduction and sales arises, and the circulation of capital gets bogged down in this eternal “thaw.” At the same time, the gap between the industrial West and the generally agrarian third world (represented by the countries of Africa, Latin America, and partly Asia) is widening, the normal development of which is hampered by many restrictions – resource, environmental, and others. All this together reinforces global wealth polarization: a handful of rich people do not know where to put their money, and billions languish in poverty.

Super-risks for super-profits

“I have very serious doubts about the legitimacy of Oxfam’s forecast, since it is based on a superficial methodology,” says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. – Analysts simply projected the current picture of global inequality into the next decade, without taking into account possible changes. Indeed, the gap between rich and poor is widening, but this is primarily due to the slowdown in the global economy. Today, its growth dynamics are much weaker than those observed in the previous 20 years. To prevent social and property polarization from intensifying, average annual growth rates above 4% are needed. It would seem that these conditions are an excellent breeding ground for cultivating trillionaires. In reality, everything is more complicated.”

According to Maslennikov, the situation with public debt in a number of Western countries does not allow us to predict the dynamics of income distribution. Let’s say, in the United States, the national debt remains stable at a level above $33 trillion (about 120% of the country’s GDP), and since the American authorities are extremely concerned about this, they can at any time resort to the simplest solution for themselves – increasing the tax on the super-rich. Which, in turn, will hit excess income. Another powerful risk is associated with the high probability of a repetition of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 in the next 10 years. This will inevitably lead to a fall in dividend yields on shares of companies owned by billionaires. Plus, MK’s interlocutor argues, the world economy is increasingly fragmented, splitting into blocks, each of which introduces new rules of the game, settlement mechanisms in trade, and develops its own digital currencies (today at least 80 central banks are doing this).

We should not forget about the climate agenda, about the increase in all kinds of threats, such as global warming and increased volcanic activity. Along with various kinds of man-made disasters, they will require concrete and urgent countermeasures from humanity, and therefore financial costs – both from the state and from large private businesses. In this state of general instability, uncertainty, and restructuring of the global economic economy, it would be better to refrain from making forecasts like the one made by researchers from Oxfam regarding the “first trillionaire in history,” Maslennikov sums up.

As for Russia, none of its official super-rich have even a slim chance of becoming a trillionaire over the next 10 years. Unless something out of science fiction happens. The capital of the country’s wealthiest businessman Andrei Melnichenko (58th place on the Forbes list) is estimated at $25 billion. But Russia itself is among the world leaders in terms of wealth concentration. According to the Boston Consulting Group, less than 0.0001% of the adult population—about 500 citizens—own 40% of all financial assets of Russians, or $640 billion.