the consumer society in question
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To analyse. Work, ecological transition, education, health… The themes that will be dealt with by the National Council for Refoundation (CNR) – which opens on Thursday September 8 – resemble those studied in depth by the international commission led, in 2020, by the economists Jean Tirole and Olivier Blanchard, already at the request of President Macron. Economic data is therefore largely on the table, even if inflation and the energy crisis add a layer of complexity. For the economist Jean Pisani-Ferry, we are entering a “external economy”, that is to say impacted by external imperatives, such as the climate, health, biodiversity, rarity or sovereignty. Shocks that can call into question the way our societies operate and limit the means at their disposal. And the first is growth, which frees up more resources to serve new spending imperatives without sacrificing current ones.
However, the question of the compatibility of this growth with the energy transition is probably the biggest unknown. Behind the high-sounding declarations of French, European and American leaders on green growth, the cost of this transformation frightens everyone a little. A certain consensus of economists at the international level assesses at two points of gross domestic product (GDP) per year the additional cost to be provided for investing in the production of green energy, decarbonizing industry and transport and renovating housing, if the ‘we want to meet the 2030 deadlines set by the Paris agreement. Which, for France, would represent fifty billion euros more to find, the equivalent of what we are already spending in this area.
“The equivalent of an oil shock”
According to the calculations of Natixis economic adviser Patrick Artus, half of this sum could be committed by private actors, households and businesses, and the other half by the State. For industry and transport, this means replacing machines in good condition with others, thus destroying capital. Where to find this money? On the side of the State, the tracks of operating savings are weak. There is, of course, the flammable site of pensions and that of work. Today, as Jean Pisani-Ferry points out, public authorities spend a total of 145 billion euros per year on all kinds of employment aid. This is more than the education budget, from kindergarten to university (125 billion). Improving the number of workers at work (employment rate) would reduce the bill. Hence the presidential obsession on the subject. On the private side, the cost would be absorbed in particular by the decline in profitability of companies, if they do not increase their prices, and a drain on individuals. Patrick Artus is sure, despite the reassuring declarations, taxes can only increase in the face of this wall of expenditure which awaits the State. “It will be equivalent to an internal oil shock”, believes Jean Pisani-Ferry, with the only advantage that the money and the activity will remain on the territory. How to go from growth to recession.
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