The Central Bank saw the risk of increasing sanctions pressure on the Russian economy

Sanctions pressure on Russia may increase, while the process of dividing countries into blocs will intensify in the world. About it says in the materials of the Bank of Russia to the report on monetary policy (MP).

“Sanction pressure on the Russian economy may increase. The division into regional blocs will have a negative impact on world trade, hinder the growth of the global economy and lead to a decrease in prices on world commodity markets,” says one of the forecast scenarios of the Central Bank.

In total, the regulator presented three forecasts. The first, basic one, takes into account that the world economy will continue to develop within the framework of previously formed trends and in the absence of new shocks. In this scenario, the Russian economy will return “to a balanced growth path” of 1.5–2.5% in 2026.

The second scenario – “increased fragmentation” – just takes into account the risk of increased sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. The process of dividing countries into blocks began in 2018–2019. Last year, it intensified due to “geopolitical tensions.” Growth rates will be lower than in the base scenario.

The third scenario – “risk” – also provides for a possible increase in sanctions pressure. It also assumes the persistence of sustained inflationary pressures in developed countries. This, in turn, will lead to a tightening of the monetary policy.

Western countries stepped up sanctions pressure on Russia after the start of a special operation in Ukraine in 2022, while many restrictions have been in place since 2014. In the spring of 2022, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated that the number of restrictions against Russia exceeds those ever introduced against any another country. In total, according to him, there are more than 6,000 sanctions.