The Central Bank raised its forecast for Russian economic growth
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The Bank of Russia raised its forecast for the country’s GDP growth in 2023 from 1.5-2.2% to 2.2-2.7%. This is stated in message regulator following a meeting of the board of directors, at which he raised the key rate to 15%.
“In the base scenario, the Bank of Russia predicts that the GDP growth rate will be 2.2–2.7% in 2023, 0.5–1.5% in 2024, 1.0–2.0% in 2025 . and 1.5–2.5% in 2026,” the report says.
The regulator also pointed to the acceleration of economic activity growth. Due to high domestic demand, the upward deviation of the economy from the balanced growth trajectory increases, which in turn increases persistent inflationary pressure. The strong growth in domestic demand is driven by expanding private demand coupled with strong government demand and “expected further increases in fiscal stimulus.”
On September 22, during a government meeting, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that Russian GDP growth in 2023 will be 2.8%, in 2024 – 2.3%. Going forward, the growth forecast is just over 2% per year. At the end of August, Siluanov assumed that the Russian economy would grow by 2.5% or more at the end of the current year.
Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexei Zabotkin said that the growth rate of the Russian economy in the third quarter, adjusted for seasonality, will be close to the results of the first and second quarters. In the fourth quarter, as the recovery momentum ends, growth rates are likely to slow down somewhat, he warned.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, in turn, noted that over the next three years the Russian economy will grow at a rate above 2% per year. Siluanov noted that budget policy is being implemented based on “fairly favorable” macroeconomic conditions. Economists surveyed by the Central Bank raised the forecast for Russian GDP growth for the year from 2.3% to 2.5%.
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