The Central Bank predicts annual inflation in the coming months below 4%

Annual inflation in the coming months will fall below 4%, follows from the materials on the website of the Bank of Russia.

“According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, in the coming months, annual inflation will temporarily drop below 4% due to the high base effect of last spring. In the second half of the year, as the low values ​​of monthly growth in the second half of 2022 are taken out of the calculation of annual inflation, this indicator will increase slightly,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

Following the results of the meeting on March 17, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia again left the key rate at the level of 7.5% per annum. It has been at this value since September last year.

In March, the Central Bank recorded a decrease in inflationary expectations of Russians for the next year to 10.7% from 12.2% in February. The last time inflation expectations of citizens were at this level was in July 2022. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, in 2023 inflation will slow down to 5–7%, and in 2024 it will return to the target of 4%. The Ministry of Economy expects inflation this year at 5.5%. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, it will be 5-7%, and in 2024 it will return to the target of 4%.

In the coming months, annual inflation will temporarily fall below 4% under the influence of the high base effect of last year, when prices soared after the start of the special operation, the Central Bank predicts.