The Central Bank may begin to reduce the key rate in the second half of the year – Kommersant

The Central Bank has a broad consensus to maintain the key rate. The regulator plans to begin reducing it only after its experts are confident that inflation will decline. This could happen in the second half of the year, said the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina.

“We discussed in more detail the possible trajectory of the rate and the rate signal, because there were those who believe that the decline in inflation is already becoming sustainable, but there were also those who believe that inflation risks have increased,” she said at a press conference. conference following the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank (quote from broadcast on YouTube).

At a meeting of the Central Bank accepted decision to maintain the key rate at 16%. Despite the decrease in inflation pressure, the Central Bank notes, it still remains high.

This is the second time in a row that the regulator has kept the key rate at the same level. The first time this happened was in February; before that, the Central Bank raised it five times in a row. The possibility of a rate reduction in the second half of 2024 was already discussed talked members of the regulator’s board of directors.

The Central Bank plans to reduce the key rate when the inflation rate approaches 4%. At the end of 2023, inflation in Russia amounted to 7.59%. In December 2023, the Russian Ministry of Finance forecast inflation at 4.5% in 2024.

Read more about inflation in the world in the text of Kommersant. “Fear inflation – don’t cut rates”.

Evgeny Belousov