The Central Bank expects inflation in the second quarter at 3.6% – Kommersant

The Central Bank expects inflation to reach 3.6% in the second quarter of 2023 after 3.5% in the first quarter. This follows from the report on the monetary policy of the regulator (.pdf). The Bank of Russia noted that the assessment is in line with the central value of the core inflation forecast.

According to the Central Bank, due to the effect of the high base in March-April 2022, annual inflation in the second quarter of 2023 will reach a minimum and fall below the set target of 4%. After that, the regulator expects, the price growth rate will increase as the low values ​​of monthly price increases in the summer of 2022 come out of its calculation.

The Bank of Russia believes that the main pro-inflationary factor is the growth in consumer demand, as well as pressure from the labor market against the backdrop of an imbalance between supply and demand.

In the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, inflation will be 4.5–6.5% in 2023, and 4% in 2024. According to the forecasts of the regulator, the Russian economy will return to the level of the end of 2021 by the end of 2024. The key rate remains at 7.5%. Today, May 11, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina allowed raising the key rate in the event of accelerated inflation.

Lusine Balasyan