The Central Bank expects GDP growth in July-September comparable to the first and second quarters

The growth rate of the Russian economy in the third quarter, adjusted for seasonality, will be close to the results of the first and second quarters, stated Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin in an interview with Interfax.

“The recovery phase of economic growth ended by the middle of the year. However, economic growth continues. For the third quarter, we will likely get seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rates close to what we saw in the first two quarters,” he said.

In the fourth quarter, against the backdrop of the end of the recovery impulse, growth rates are likely to slow down somewhat, Zabotkin warned. The consequences of tightening monetary policy will also have an impact, he added. Next year, the regulator expects GDP growth, but “more moderate” compared to the current one.

Earlier, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that over the next three years the Russian economy will grow at a rate above 2% per year. Siluanov noted that budget policy is being implemented based on “fairly favorable” macroeconomic conditions. At the same time, we need to be prepared for different scenarios, he added. The minister pointed to “economic and financial fragmentation, structural imbalance” and sanctions that Western countries continue to impose on the Russian Federation.

On September 22, during a government meeting, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that Russian GDP growth in 2023 will be 2.8%, in 2024 – 2.3%. Going forward, the growth forecast is just over 2% per year. At the end of August, Siluanov assumed that the Russian economy would grow by 2.5% or more at the end of the current year.

At the end of August Rosstat published report “The Socio-Economic Situation of Russia”, in which the country’s GDP was noted to grow by 1.6% in the first half of 2023. The Ministry of Economic Development in its review “On the current situation” estimated GDP growth for January – July at 2.1%, previously The department estimated growth at 1.4%.