The Central Bank expects GDP growth closer to the upper level of its forecast
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According to the results of this year, the Russian economy will show growth, most likely closer to the upper level of the Central Bank’s forecast of 0.5-2%, said the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
“Indeed, there is an accelerated adaptation of the economy, and now, according to our assessment, the dynamics of GDP is better than the central point of our forecast suggests. We have [прогноз роста] 0.5-2%, and more likely in the upper half of our forecast range,” she said (quote according to TASS).
The Central Bank will update the forecast for the next meeting (July 21), Nabiullina added.
In April, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov announced that the agency had improved its forecast for the Russian economy in 2023 from a decline of 0.8% (in the September forecast) to growth of 1.2%. Soon the Central Bank also improved the forecast. At the same time, economists polled by the regulator at the end of May predict the growth of the Russian economy by 0.8% at the end of the year.
On June 9, Nabiullina announced that the Russian economy would fully return to pre-crisis levels as early as next year. Speaking about new growth points in “changing conditions”, the Central Bank Chairman drew attention to the development of domestic tourism, the growth of engineering in a number of regions, non-ferrous metallurgy and the chemical industry in Siberia, and ferrous metallurgy in the central part of the country and the Urals. At the same time, Nabiullina noted that now there are no signs of overheating of the Russian economy, but the risks of such a development of events exist.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Russia’s GDP growth in April amounted to 3.3% in annual terms after a decline of 0.7% in March and 2.6% in February. The positive dynamics is due to the low base in 2022, when the indicator decreased by 3%. According to preliminary estimates of Rosstat, it decreased by 1.9% in annual terms.
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