The Central Bank confirmed the inflation forecast of 4% for 2024 with the risk of exceeding – Kommersant

The Central Bank announced significant risks of exceeding the inflation target of 4% in 2024. At the same time, the Central Bank believes that the ongoing monetary policy is aimed at returning annual inflation to the target of 4% in 2024. This is stated in the message of the regulator following an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors on raising the key rate to 12% from 8.5%.

“Inflationary pressure continues to increase. As of August 7, annual inflation increased to 4.4%. At the same time, the current rate of price growth continues to accelerate. On average, over the past three months, seasonally adjusted current growth was 7.6% on an annualized basis. The same indicator of core inflation increased to 7.1%,” the report said. message.

The Central Bank noted that the growth of domestic demand, which exceeds the possibility of expanding output, increases inflationary pressure and affects the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate through increased demand for imports. As a result, the pass-through effect of the ruble depreciation to prices increases and inflation expectations rise.

“Going forward, maintaining the current rate of price growth at the achieved levels means a significant risk of inflation deviating upward from the target in 2024,” the report said. According to the Central Bank, an increase in the rate to 12% is necessary to return inflation to 4% in 2024 and stabilize it around this indicator in the future.

According to the results of July, annual inflation in Russia increased to 4.3%, which is 1.05 percentage points more than in June. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, annual inflation will continue to rise in the coming months. The regulator expects inflation to reach 5.0-6.5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024.

On the situation in the economy – in the material “Kommersant” “August took the ruble”.

Olesya Pavlenko