The Central Bank approved the principles of monetary policy for three years – Kommersant
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Central Bank approved main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2024–2026. The regulator indicated that to return inflation to the target value of 4%, it is necessary to maintain tight monetary conditions in the economy.
IN basic Bank of Russia scenarios, the key rate in 2023 will average 9.9%, in 2024 – 12.5-14.5%, in 2025 – 7.0-9.0%, in 2026 – 6 -7% per annum. Meanwhile, inflation this year is expected to be 7–7.5%, and will approach the target value in 2024. GDP growth, according to Central Bank forecasts, will be approximately 2.2–2.7% in 2023, and will decrease in 2024 and 2025, “taking into account the completion of the recovery growth phase.” In 2026, the Russian economy, according to the regulator’s materials, will return to growth of 1.5–2.5%.
Alternative the “Increasing Fragmentation” scenario assumes increased deglobalization “due to rising geopolitical tensions.” The scenario allows for increased sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. A drop in demand for Russian-made goods and a shortage of imported components could lead to an acceleration of inflation to 6.1–7.8% in 2024. In this case, it will reach the target value in 2026.
“Risk” the scenario, as follows from the Central Bank’s materials, could lead to an even greater tightening of monetary policy, and subsequently to a “deterioration in the condition of financial organizations.” In this scenario, a global crisis, a significant decline in oil prices, and a decline in the Russian economy are possible, which will move to recovery growth of 2–3% only in 2026. Inflation in 2024 may rise to 11–13%, and the key rate to 16–17%. Inflation will reach the target in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank adjusted the forecast for the structural liquidity balance at the end of 2023. Previously, the regulator allowed indicator values in the range of a surplus of 0.7 trillion rubles. to a deficit of 0.2 trillion rubles. Now the Central Bank expects a surplus in the range from zero to 0.9 trillion rubles. The forecast for the increase in the volume of cash in circulation at the end of this year was maintained at the level of 2.5–3 trillion rubles.
Read more about the monetary policy of the Central Bank in the Kommersant publication. “Christmas tree stand.”
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