The Central Bank allowed the return of the economy to pre-crisis levels in 2025
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“If the economy develops near the upper range of our October baseline forecast, then we will return to 2021 levels sometime in 2025,” he said.
Zabotkin explained that it is much easier for the economy to overcome the consequences of a cyclical downturn than a “structural decline in potential”. Thus, the country’s economy was able to recover from the cyclical decline due to the pandemic in 2020 already in 2021, and structural adaptation is a longer process, so it will take more time.
According to the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, the Russian economy is still “very open”: restrictions on imports remain, however, “the physical volume of exports and the prices of our exports are highly dependent on the global situation.” Prices for individual commodities have declined substantially in recent months following lower global growth expectations, Zabotkin added.
In mid-December, Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina announced that the decline in Russia’s GDP at the end of the current year expected at a level of about 3%, while it may be less under favorable conditions. In October, the Bank of Russia improved its GDP forecast for 2022. The regulator expects GDP to decline by 3.0-3.5% by the end of the year. In 2023, the decline could range from 1 to 4%. At the same time, in 2024-2025. growth of the Russian economy is projected at the level of 1.5-2.5% annually.
The Ministry of Economics, in turn, expects a decline in GDP in 2022 by 2.9%, and in 2023 by 0.8%. November 30, according to the review of the Ministry of Economic Development “On the current situation in the Russian economy”, from January to October, the decline in GDP amounted to 2.1%. At the same time, in 2024-2025. the ministry predicts GDP growth of 2.6% per year.
December 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin declaredthat the decline in GDP at the end of the year is expected to be approximately 2.5%. The head of state stressed that the large-scale sanctions of the West against Russia did not achieve their goal. According to him, the calculation of Western countries for the collapse of the Russian ruble, as well as the acceleration of inflation in the country, did not materialize.
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