The Central Bank allowed the acceleration of annual inflation growth in the summer

Annual inflation in Russia may begin to grow as early as May, and accelerate in the summer. In the third quarter, this figure may exceed 4%, said Kirill Tremasov, director of the monetary policy department of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, transmits TASS.

“Annual inflation, most likely, will go up from May, and in the summer this upward movement <…> may even speed up. Most likely, already in the third quarter, the annual rate will exceed 4%,” he said.

According to him, if inflation in the current summer months is usually characterized by seasonality, slight growth, then every month the annual rate may increase by 0.3-0.5 percentage points. Tremasov also recalled that, according to the forecast of the Central Bank, inflation by the end of 2023 will be 4.5-6.5%, in 2024 – 4%.

From the review of the Ministry of Economic Development for May 24 shouldthat the annual inflation in Russia in the week from May 16 to May 22 slightly accelerated and amounted to 2.36% in annual terms after 2.34% and 2.32% in the previous two weeks. Weekly price growth again amounted to 0.04%. Rosstat estimated inflation since the beginning of May at 0.13%, and since the beginning of the year – at 2.19%.

Prior to this, the Bank of Russia informedthat the inflation expectations of the population rose in May after declining in the previous two months and amounted to 10.8%. The median assessment of inflationary expectations of Russians for the year ahead increased by 0.4% compared to April, and for five years ahead – by 1.4%, to 11.3%. At the same time, inflation observed by the population in annual terms decreased by 0.8% and amounted to 14.1%.

The Central Bank recalled that it expects an increase in annual inflation in the Russian Federation from May due to the withdrawal from its calculation of low values ​​​​of an increase in this indicator in the summer-autumn of 2022.

At the end of April, the Bank of Russia improved its forecast for inflation and the rate of recovery of the Russian economy in 2023. The regulator now expects GDP growth of 0.5-2%, although back in February it predicted a decline. According to the Central Bank, inflation in 2023 will be 4.5-6.5%, in February it was expected at the level of 5-7%. According to the regulator’s forecast, in the second quarter inflation will be at the level of 3.6%, and by the end of the year it may reach 4.5-6.5%. In 2024, inflation will reach a plateau.