the budget has not reached the base level of oil and gas revenues

The weakening of the ruble in July and the rise in the cost of Urals, which began at the same time, failed in August to ensure that the budget achieves a basic level of oil and gas revenues. Recall that oil taxes are calculated from the price and exchange rate in the previous month, and the base level is 8 trillion rubles decomposed by months, the minimum necessary for the budget in 2023 to cover expenses from oil and gas.

According to data released yesterday by the Ministry of Finance, in August oil and gas revenues amounted to 643 billion rubles. with a base of 672 billion rubles. This is noticeably less than it was in July (811 billion rubles, when the calendar factor worked – the budget received a tax on additional income, AIT, which is paid four times a year). Relative to last August (672 billion rubles), the decline in revenues can be considered insignificant (by 4%). According to the results of all eight months of oil and gas revenues, 4.8 trillion rubles were collected, and this is 38% less than it was for the same period in 2022 – the backlog from last year’s schedule is gradually decreasing.

With a general reduction in collections, the receipts of the main oil and gas tax – the MET – increased noticeably in August, to 875 billion rubles. from July 673 billion rubles. Among the reasons are the rise in the price of Urals in July to $64 from $55 per barrel in June and the weakening of the ruble to the average monthly value of 90.4 rubles/$ from 83.2 rubles/$, respectively. Let us explain that the total oil and gas revenues are less than the severance tax dues, because the total amount is reduced by repayments to oilmen from the budget: expenditures on a subsidy to oil refiners amounted to 114 billion rubles, payments to companies for a fuel damper – 186 billion rubles.

Since the Ministry of Finance expects additional oil and gas revenues in September, yesterday it announced the purchase of foreign currency and gold in reserves. Recall that if the base is short, the Ministry of Finance should sell the currency, if it is exceeded, it should buy it on the market. According to the agency, 276.2 billion rubles will be allocated for such operations from September 7 to October 5. (for 13.2 billion rubles daily). However, the foreign exchange market will not see these operations, they will be held between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance – we recall that the budget rule in this part to curb the weakening of the ruble from August 10 until the end of the year is suspended (see “Kommersant” dated August 10).

Vadim Visloguzov