The Bank of Russia, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, will have to sell petroyuans worth $918 million in June
[ad_1]
In June, sales by the Ministry of Finance of foreign currency to finance the budget deficit will not stop – spending the savings of previous years will not only continue, but will almost double. The Bank of Russia, on behalf of the ministry, will have to sell petroyuans worth $918 million, or 3.6 billion rubles, in June. per day (2 billion rubles in May). The formal reason is the “shortage” of oil and gas revenues in May and the forecast for its growth in June. Hopes that in June revenues from the sale of energy resources will exceed the base level and the Ministry of Finance will return to the accumulation of reserves did not come true – and this was prevented not by the fall in oil prices, but by the statistical effect of the uneven receipt of the oil tax on additional income to the budget, without which oil and gas revenues in May would have risen by 22.3%. However, taking into account the future strengthening of the ruble, the refusal of the Ministry of Finance to leave the foreign exchange market will allow it to save reserves and maintain exchange rate stability.
In June, the Ministry of Finance will almost double the volume of daily sales of foreign currency from reserves – in a month, the Bank of Russia, on behalf of the department, must sell foreign currency by 74.6 billion rubles. ($918 million), daily sales in ruble terms from June 7 to July 6 will almost double – to 3.6 billion rubles. (from 2 billion rubles from May 10 to June 6). The reason is the formal reduction in budget oil and gas revenues in May: according to the Ministry of Finance, they fell by 11.9% against April, to 570.7 billion rubles, by 30.6 billion rubles. stronger than expected.
At the same time, back in April, the Ministry of Finance assumed that in May only 8.1 billion rubles would not be enough for it to reach the baseline. (see “Kommersant” dated May 5), and a number of analysts assumed that in June oil and gas revenues would exceed the bar calculated from the budget rule, taking into account the receipts of previous months, and the waste of reserves would be replaced by their accumulation. Monthly sales of the reserves accumulated in previous years actually decreased until June – 1.8 times in May, 1.5 times in April and 1.6 times in March. Since the beginning of the year, almost 450 billion rubles worth of yuan and gold have been sold from the NWF, these funds are used to cover the “shortage” of oil and gas budget revenues.
The transition to replenishment of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) in 2023, as Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev reported in mid-April, could occur if Urals prices “sustainably” exceed $60 per barrel. In May, however, the average price of Urals oil fell to $53.34 per barrel, down 9% from $58.63 in April and 32% against May 2022.
At the same time, a detailed breakdown of the data published by the Ministry of Finance indicates that, despite the decline in prices, in reality, the actual revenues to the budget from oil and gas did not fall, but grew – by 22.3% compared to April, probably due to growth production and supply volumes (since 2022, the government has closed the publication of detailed data on foreign trade, but other explanations for the increase in duties due to falling oil prices are hardly possible). Thus, revenues from the mineral extraction tax (MET) in May increased by 17.4%, or 104.4 billion rubles, in comparison with April, export duty – by 15.8%, or 9 billion rubles. Only the duty and MET on oil and gas condensate brought the budget 617.7 billion rubles, which is 24.1% higher than in April. Decreased (by only 4%) only the volume of revenues from the export duty and the mineral extraction tax on gas (up to 144.9 billion rubles). Fluctuations in the volume of support for the oil industry changed insignificantly – subsidies to oil refiners grew in May (to RUB 91 billion from RUB 79.3 billion in April), while damper payments to oil companies slightly decreased (to RUB 103.5 billion from RUB 107.2 billion). billion rubles, respectively) — and had little effect on the final indicator; more noticeable changes will appear in this area closer to autumn.
As a result, the “decrease” in oil and gas revenues turned out to be almost completely ensured by the peculiarities of accounting for additional income tax (ATD), which is paid on a quarterly schedule. After massive revenues in April, they fell by 180 billion rubles in May to 5.4 billion rubles, and this dip more than compensated for the growth in revenues from hydrocarbon exports and the MET. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance itself in the comments to the data notes that “the forecast and base volume of AIT receipts is evenly distributed in the current quarter for each month of the corresponding quarter” – and the May figure for AIT receipts of 5.4 billion rubles. can be neither predictive nor basic; it will probably be revised later – on Monday, the Ministry of Finance did not respond to Kommersant’s request.
Due to the fall in the price of Urals, the estimates by the Ministry of Finance of lost oil and gas revenues in June also increased to 44 billion rubles.
Together with the May “statistical” losses of 30.6 billion rubles. this creates the need to convert into rubles in June reserves for 74.6 billion rubles. This, we note, will allow the Ministry of Finance to continue selling foreign currency from the NWF at a relatively high rate, which, given the expected strengthening of the ruble by the end of the year, will give the ministry the opportunity to more efficiently spend reserves to finance the budget deficit, while simultaneously filling the foreign exchange market with liquidity.
[ad_2]
Source link