The authorities are preparing the population for rising prices for holidays: why tickets will rise in price

The most impressive and frightening forecast for the rise in prices for air tickets, however, was given by Deputy Minister of Transport Igor Chalik. In his opinion, against the backdrop of reduced subsidies, flights within Russia will rise in price by 15-30% this year. To date, the volume of state support that was provisionally allocated to the industry in 2022 has not yet been approved. If the authorities remove this issue from the agenda at all, then we should expect not an increase, but a decrease in the number of flights, against which the cost of tickets will grow by leaps and bounds.

With this opinion, fighters for consumer rights are in solidarity, who add to the named reason the unclear future of the ruble exchange rate and other market realities.

“I believe that Chalik’s point of view is the most correct,” says Dmitry Yanin, chairman of the board of the International Confederation of Consumer Societies. – The cost of flights depends on the exchange rate and fuel prices. The ruble in 2023 became cheaper by almost 25%. At the same time, oil companies urgently need to increase revenues within the country, since exports are now not so profitable. Air tickets will continue to rise in price also due to the increase in the cost of servicing the air fleet through intermediary countries and the lack of renewal of the aircraft fleet.”

There are not so many options for sea tours at present. If earlier people freely flew to Spain, Italy, Portugal, Malta and other resorts of now unfriendly countries, now getting there has become much more difficult and much more expensive due to the lack of direct flights. There is less competition, and the reduction in the choice of countries and regions for trips by Russian tourists also does not contribute to lower prices, the expert pointed out.

Meanwhile, market representatives argue that there is an obvious and selfish motive in Chalik’s loud statements – the desire to receive state support for the industry, so his words should be treated with caution.

“A tariff increase of 30% is clearly inflated figures. They were announced in order to receive subsidies, – Yury Barzykin, chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Committee on Tourism Entrepreneurship, enters into controversy. — Let me remind you that last year 100 billion rubles were allocated to support the aviation industry. This year, the state does not have such funds.”

According to the expert, the price increase will be approximately 10%, that is, within the framework of real (and not formal) inflation. Recall that the same Reshetnikov proudly announced that the official inflation rate in Russia in April was 2.6%, and in March – 3.5%. True, the rise in prices slowed down only on paper. This mathematical illusion arises as a result of comparing current performance with last year’s data. This figure reflects the so-called “high base effect”, that is, a force majeure situation in the spring of 2022, when the ruble weakened sharply due to sanctions. Then there was a surge in consumer demand, and as a result, prices for almost all goods and services accelerated That is why experts today often focus on the concept of “real inflation”, which does not coincide with the values ​​announced from the high stands.

Then everything will go according to the laws of the market: prices will be higher for popular travel dates, but special offers will also appear: for example, additional flights will be organized, which are not yet on the schedule, because there are enough boards within the country.

“This year, for air tickets and tourist trips, we fix an increase in the cost on average at the level of current inflation,” Dmitry Gorin, vice president of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, continues the topic. “But for a number of the most popular destinations and the sector of the most demanded hotels, there will be a more tangible increase, which is in the range from 8% to 15%.”

Now the highest demand for tickets is for July and August, that is, for the holiday season, so the main recommendation is to plan your trips in advance and purchase air and especially railway tickets. If we talk about tour packages, and not just about air tickets, then the largest increase in prices is recorded in five-star hotels on the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Territory – in Sochi, Anapa, Gelendzhik. There, the increase in cost by the height of the season can reach 20%, and in unique cases reach up to 30%. As for air tickets, the spread between their current price and those tariffs at which “tickets” will have to be bought at the peak of demand is at the level of 5-8%.

Summarizing the opinions of experts, we can say that the cost of both tours and air tickets is increasing for several reasons. The main one is inflation, which increases the costs of entrepreneurs for running the hotel business, the costs of the salary fund, etc. This leads to an increase in the cost of services. Last year was the same: the price of aviation fuel rose by 45%, as well as the cost of airlines to repair and operate the fleet, which negatively affected the overall cost of tourist trips. The second factor is dynamic pricing. Both in air travel and in rail travel, prices for the last tickets will be much higher than the average for the entire period of their sales to the destination desired by the vacationer.

It is worth noting that each flight is sold out at certain rates, depending on whether it is a return voyage or not, baggage or baggageless, etc. As a result, the price can vary significantly. In Sochi, the round-trip airfare ranges from 8,000 to 25,000 rubles, depending on demand. Another good example is the popular tourist destination “Moscow – St. Petersburg”. The cost of a ticket for Sapsan can range from 2,000 to 7,000 rubles one way. But the most expensive tickets are, as a rule, the last places before departure or departure.

Hotels also raise prices, but not only because of inflation. The increase in prices up to 20% and more for five-star hotels in the Krasnodar Territory is associated with a limited supply: there are no more than 50 of them. For comparison, only on one coast of Antalya in Turkey there are about 500 hotels of a similar class.

“When there are as many places of comfortable living in the southern, resort regions of Russia, competition will intensify and prices will begin to decline,” Gorin is sure. There is no such phenomenon in the segment of two- and three-star hotels, so we should expect a more loyal price increase in this segment – in the region of 5-8%.

But if we talk about traveling by sea, then the situation there is different. As Barzykin noted, on average, about 40 thousand rubles for 9-10 days of rest per person. Strictly speaking, our fellow citizens are counting on such a sum. According to polls, Russians are ready to spend from 30,000 to 50,000 rubles on vacation. Inside the country, this money will be enough to rest not only in a three-star hotel, but even in a four-star hotel, and with breakfast.

“The average vacation check today is from 35,000 to 50,000 rubles per person, including flights,” Gorin confirms the conclusions of his colleague. – In the segment of two-three and four-star hotels, if a family of 2-3 people travels, then it is quite possible to meet the budget of up to 100 thousand rubles for 7 days for everyone in a certain category of hotels. But if we are talking about premium five-star hotels, then the price will, of course, be higher.”

At the same time, the variety of recreation options is great: tourists choose sanatoriums, apartments, the private sector, and mini-hotels, where vacations are much more economical. In addition, Abkhazia competes with the Krasnodar Territory with a flight to Sochi. And there it is cheaper to rest by 15-30% than even in Sochi itself, Gelendzhik or Anapa, the expert recalls.

For those who are already very tight with finances, do not lose heart. Almost everyone can afford to relax for 3-4 days for 15 thousand rubles, for example, on a river cruise: the experience is unforgettable, and the cost is quite budgetary. In principle, if spending a vacation at sea is not an indispensable condition, but you just want to travel and it will be enough to visit some interesting Russian city, then you can pay attention to the most affordable options for your pocket.

Analysts of the Tutu.ru service listed the cheapest destinations for flights by Russians. Their study showed that Muscovites will be able to fly to Saransk, St. Petersburg and Ulyanovsk most advantageously in the summer. Also, tickets at an affordable price can be purchased to Pskov, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Perm, Volgograd and Yekaterinburg. The cost of the road in both directions will be from 7.3 thousand to 9.9 thousand rubles.