The assassination of the President of Transnistria was supposed to destabilize the region

The Ministry of State Security of the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) on March 9 announced the prevention of an assassination attempt on the life of PMR President Vadim Krasnoselsky organized by the SBU. According to the PMR prosecutor Anatoly Guretsky, the attackers were preparing an attack using an explosive device planted in a Land Rover jeep in the center of Tiraspol. The main suspect, former Tiraspol resident Vyacheslav Kisnichan, who was recruited by the SBU in Odessa, was assembling an explosive device and was supposed to detonate it, according to state television channel Perviy Pridnestrovskiy. He had accomplices – three citizens of Ukraine, one of whom was detained.

The SBU denied involvement in the incident and called the report a “Russian provocation.”

The assassination of the president of the PMR would help Ukraine and Moldova try to eliminate the independence of the region without conducting a costly military operation, says Ivan Konovalov, director of the 21st Century Technology Development Fund. In the event of an unsuccessful assassination attempt, the destabilization of the whole of Moldova was visible, which, quite likely, could lead to greater involvement of Romania and its NATO allies in the affairs of Moldova and, possibly, greater involvement of NATO in military operations on the side of Ukraine, which plays into the hands of Kiev, the expert says .

The statement about the assassination appeared in a situation of ongoing tension within Moldova, as well as on the border of Ukraine with the PMR. Russian peacekeepers (four battalions with light weapons), whom Kyiv and official Chisinau call a “threat”, are quartered in Transnistria, and large amounts of Soviet ammunition are also concentrated. In Chisinau in February, large-scale demonstrations by the opposition, which the authorities describe as pro-Russian, took place, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the protests part of a plan for a pro-Russian coup. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that the information of the Ukrainian special services about this was taken into account. The reason for the protests was the inability of the authorities to cope with the energy crisis and record inflation in 30 years. On February 18, the new Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean, announced the need to “demilitarize” Pridnestrovie, “expelling Russian troops from there, and then integrate the inhabitants of the region economically and socially.” On February 23, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Ukraine, under the pretext of provocation, was preparing an invasion of the unrecognized republic in order to seize military depots with ammunition left over from Soviet times in Kolbasna (from 19,000 to 22,000 tons, more than half of which are expired). On February 27, the press secretary of the “South” command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Natalya Gumenyuk, acknowledged the concentration of Ukrainian units on the border with Transnistria.

From a purely military point of view, it makes sense for Kyiv to operate against Transnistria, Dmitry Kornev, editor-in-chief of the MilitaryRussia portal, notes. But, probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also guided by some political considerations, otherwise it is difficult to explain why in the current situation they have not moved to active actions. The PMR has solid stocks of Soviet-caliber ammunition needed for Ukraine, while the Russian contingent is very small, Kornev emphasizes. The armed forces in Transnistria are few and poorly armed. Perhaps, Kornev admits, the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply do not yet have firm agreements with NATO and the leadership of Moldova, but the situation can change at any moment.

Any actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in relation to Transnistria will be an invasion of the internationally recognized borders of Moldova, in which the United States is not yet interested, judging by their public statements, says Vladimir Zharikhin, director of the CIS Institute. At the same time, the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the PMR, which is called a threat in Kyiv and Chisinau, mostly consists of Pridnestrovians, the expert explains. They have both Russian and Moldovan passports, that is, they are Moldovan citizens, recalls Zharikhin. The authorities of the unrecognized Transnistria, when reporting sabotage by Ukraine, are obviously playing it safe and trying to attract the attention of not only Russia, but also Western countries, Zharikhin says. For Moldova, now the military action of Ukraine against the PMR is unprofitable, since this can destabilize the situation already in Gagauzia in the south of the country, the expert believes.

The West is very interested in the destabilization of countries along the perimeter of the Russian borders, which can be seen in the example of the protests in Georgia and the recent terrorist attack in Belarus, said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the sector of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine at the IMEMO RAS. In this aspect, the escalation of the situation in Transnistria looks like a completely logical step. The Ukrainian leadership also seeks to create several new points of tension for the Russian Armed Forces and at the same time try to negotiate by exchanging peace in Transnistria for an extension of the so-called grain deal, the expert explains. As for the policy of Chisinau, the government of Sandu, apparently, has set a course for the economic destruction of the country, in order to subsequently confront the Moldovans with the fact of ruin and join Romania. According to Ofitserov-Belsky, the Transnistrian problem will not prevent Sandu from pulling off such a scenario – on the example of Cyprus, whose north is under the rule of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, one can observe that the suspended status of part of the territory does not interfere with European integration.

Although the number of the Russian contingent in Transnistria is small and amounts to only 1,500 people, there are objects on its territory, the defeat of which in the event of hostilities can create big problems on the right bank of the Dniester, says a source close to the special services. We are talking, for example, about the Moldavskaya GRES, which is of great importance for the energy supply of the entire region.