The announcement of early elections in Serbia was preceded by “dirty” pressure on Vucic

Western grin

Whenever you hear or see some bold and loud statement by Aleksandar Vucic, the question involuntarily arises in your head: “What will Serbia get from the West now for this?” Everything that happens in the republic is impossible (and even impossible) to consider without context.

The trigger for the emergence of the above-mentioned issue can easily be called the UN General Assembly held in September. The speech of the Serbian President for any sober-minded person was completely justified and logical: it spoke about the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 (“ostensibly to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe,” as Vucic recalled), and about the unilateral recognition of Kosovo’s independence by the Western bloc in 2008.

Vučić said directly that it is the West that is to blame for this: “The attempt to tear my country apart is still not over. It was the violation of the provisions of the UN Charter in the case of Serbia that became one of the main causes of numerous problems today.”

Over the past year, tensions in unrecognized Kosovo have really increased. Not to mention the situation with license plates, clashes between ethnic Albanians living there and Serbs from the northern part of Kosovo have become noticeably more frequent in the region.

The Western bloc portrays “deep concern”. Even on October 21, 5 emissaries (EU representative for the Balkans Miroslav Lajcak, as well as diplomats from the USA, Germany, France and Italy) came to Belgrade and Pristina to present a model for the creation of the Community of Serbian Municipalities. Traditionally, everything has come to a standstill.

Kurti and Vučić did not sign any agreements. And the President of Serbia recalled Belgrade’s intention not to recognize the independence of Kosovo, either de facto or de jure. Then the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, got down to business and directly and frankly stated: “Serbia must achieve actual recognition of Kosovo.”

Why should it? For the sake of the country’s entry into the European Union. Vucic himself has repeatedly admitted that this is a priority for his country. But the Serbian leader, following a meeting with the head of the EC, mentioned that the obstacles on the country’s path to Europe are the refusal to impose anti-Russian sanctions and recognize the independence of Kosovo and Metohija. These are two things that Belgrade fundamentally does not agree to. For the West, this is another reason to blackmail Vucic, if his country really has a desire to become part of the European Union.

Opposition bayonets

The opposition’s intensified work on the issue of changing power in Serbia has become incredibly persistent. She was the first to speak (and even put forward a demand) about holding early parliamentary elections in the country. This happened in May, when two mass shootings occurred in the republic in three days. First, on May 3, a bloody massacre was carried out by a 13-year-old schoolboy. The victims were 8 classmates of the attacker and a security guard. Already on May 5, in the municipality of Mladenovac near Belgrade, 21-year-old Uros Blazic opened fire on people while in a car. As a result of the attack, 8 people were killed and 14 were injured.

The pro-European opposition, which was already belligerent towards the current authorities, thought that these events were an excellent opportunity to bring the people to the streets. Regular protests began to take place under the slogan “Serbia against violence.” They were organized by the Democratic Party of Zoran Lutovac, the Green-Left Front/Let’s Not Drown Belgrade of Radomir Lazović and company, the Freedom and Justice Party of Dragan Djilas, the People’s Party and the opposition parties Together. We present this list in detail, since the names of the parties and the names of their leaders in this case are worth remembering.

Among the demands of the demonstrators were, among other things: the resignation of the Minister of Internal Affairs Bratislav Gasic, the Minister of Education Branko Ruzic and the head of the Security and Information Agency Alexander Vulin. The opposition also advocated the closure of a number of government media outlets. From time to time, there were also maximalist calls for the resignation of President Vučić.

The leader of the republic did not make any sudden movements, warning the opposition: there will be no violent change of power in Serbia, as in Kyiv in 2014. At the end of the month, Vucic announced his resignation as leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SPP). He was replaced by the country’s Defense Minister Milos Vucevic.

On the one hand, a concession to the opposition, but for a while this calmed the situation a little. The opposition, through various methods (including through the press, stuffing and other low things) tried to harm the image of the current president. And at the end of September, the opposition again had a loud reason to express its dissatisfaction. In northern Kosovo, on the night of September 24, there was an attack on local law enforcement officers. The policeman was killed, three attackers were killed. According to Vucic, the two dead Serbs died from sniper fire.

But that day the escalation was not limited to this clash. According to the Rasko-Prizren diocese, at the same time armed masked men who arrived in armored vehicles burst into the Banjska monastery. Priests and believers (pilgrims arrived at the monastery from Novi Sad, among them were children) were forced to lock themselves in one of the buildings. Shots were heard on the territory of the monastery.

In the wake of the tragic day, the opposition decided to once again promote its “dirty” game not even for the sake of justice, but for the sake of another attempt to overthrow Vucic. A team of oppositionists (the same ones who staged protests under the slogan “Serbia against violence”) sent a letter to the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. It said: the EU should impose sanctions not against Serbia, but against Vucic.

The letter emphasized precisely this: the opposition is “deeply opposed” to sanctions against Serbia, since it will further push the Serbian people towards an anti-European position: “On the other hand, Aleksandar Vucic’s political and personal responsibility for this situation in Kosovo is obvious. Therefore, all possible measures must be taken against him and his closest political allies.”

“Aleksandar Vučić is directly responsible for encouraging Serbian representatives to leave Kosovo’s institutions – especially the police forces – but also for imposing authoritarian and undemocratic solutions, that is, the abolition of political pluralism among Serbs in Kosovo,” “enterprising” pro-European activists brazenly asserted.

The conclusion was: “Vučić is part of the problem, not the solution to the current situation both in Serbia and beyond. A democratic government in Serbia is a prerequisite for finding long-term solutions to complex problems, both in Kosovo and for broader stability and peace in the Western Balkans region.”

The publication Balkan Insight notes that the European Commission did not comment on the letter, telling the regional TV channel N1 that they “never comment on correspondence.” They only said briefly: the letter will be answered through “appropriate channels.”

Aleksandar Vučić condemned the opposition’s calls for the EU to impose sanctions against him and his associates in connection with the armed incident on September 24, calling the move “unheard of” and a “sign of defeatism”: “They wrote to someone to impose sanctions against the leader of their country because that they cannot defeat him any other way.”

And the question really arises: by what right did the opposition decide to take such a step? Isn’t this an indicator that these intra-Serbian (and, in fact, anti-Serbian) layers are actually making attempts to show who is in power there? But then they themselves undermine democracy. And if you remember, they blame the current government of the republic for this. It’s a mess, gentlemen liberals.

Early elections: defeat or show of force

In such conditions, Vucic’s hints began to appear often that early parliamentary elections would still take place. Following her resignation from the post of leader of the ruling SPP, in June, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic announced her readiness to resign. Vucic then noted: this means holding early elections in the country before the end of 2023.

Already on November 1, the president officially announced that early elections to the Assembly would take place on December 17. All the facts that began to converge into a single picture were amazing. A whole coalition of support has formed around Vucic and his party.

The leader of the Serbian Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj (until 2008, Vučić was a member of this political entity) said: “If the Serbian Progressive Party cannot form a government on its own or with the socialists, we are ready to join the government with them. Definitely, we will never be with the pro-Western opposition.” This fact caused a flurry of comic (but kind) videos on Serbian Internet channels with the captions: “Vučić and Seselj. Return”.

It is also significant that overnight (from the moment the date of the early elections was officially set), the SPP list “Aleksandar Vucic – Serbia must not stop” was supported by 66 thousand citizens. This is 6 times more than required (according to the rules, the minimum number of signatures that a political organization must collect is 10 thousand votes. For parties this threshold is lower – 5 thousand). At all the headquarters of the ruling party throughout the country, queues were formed of those wishing to indicate their position. Let us emphasize again, in the middle of the night.

By the way, SPP became the first party to submit the necessary documents (and receive the required number of votes) to participate in the early parliamentary elections.

Some still considered calling elections another concession from Vucic to the opposition. But what if we look at the situation from the other side? So far, on the contrary, this is more like a manifestation of the strength and confidence of the leader of the republic in the strength of his party. Let us remember that Vucic has experience in participating in such an “unplanned” event. In 2022, early parliamentary elections ended with a confident defeat of the opposition forces. The incumbent president’s coalition “Together we can do everything” gained almost 43% of the vote, and the opposition bloc “United for Serbia’s Victory” accumulated just over 13%. There were some changes in the composition of parliament, but this did not significantly affect the authority of the SPP.

Now the position of the current Serbian authorities looks more advantageous on the surface. And Vučić really took a completely democratic way to prove who is right and who is wrong. This could strengthen the party’s position. Plus, the painful issue of normalizing relations with Kosovo (in the Western version – recognition of the region) is also postponed. For a while, of course.

And what, by the way, is the opposition? This is interesting. The tabloid press of the main troublemakers (mainly the resources of the leader of the Freedom and Justice Party) broadcast materials about Vučić and his family that are disgusting in execution and content. Everything as usual.

Commenting on this, the country’s president with his father Anjelko, in an address on a social network page, called this not just an attack on his family, “the opposition wants to destroy all Serbian families”: “When I announced the elections, I asked all the actors to participate in a fair fight, in which they will compete with their program, work and results. We will respond to this by working and improving the situation of Serbian citizens. Those who attacked me and my family through their media attacked not only us, my mother and my father, but also every Serbian family. They want to destroy all our families and destroy our country, as they did from 2000 to 2012… I promise you that we will save all the families in Serbia and save Serbia from irresponsible persecutors who will destroy everything this country has created.”