Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is preparing a visit to Moscow

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will arrive in Russia on an official visit in mid-March. An informed diplomatic source told Vedomosti about its preparation. According to an interlocutor close to the administration of the Russian president, Russian leader Vladimir Putin can also receive him.

The last visit of the Syrian president to the Russian capital took place before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine – in mid-September 2021. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov did not respond to a request from Vedomosti. Syria has not recovered from the effects of a 12-year civil war, is under heavy Western sanctions and, along with neighboring Turkey, was hit hard by the February 6 earthquake. The World Bank has estimated damage from the disaster across the country at $5.1 billion.

The World Health Organization has counted about 8,500 deaths from the earthquake in Syria, half in the territories controlled by Damascus. More than 414,000 people have been affected, with over 4,000 buildings damaged or destroyed, according to Syrian authorities.

The economic situation of the country was extremely difficult even before this catastrophe. The key problem is fuel shortage. It escalated in December 2022 and became the most severe since the start of the civil war in the country in 2011.

The shortage has led to problems with energy supply, the delivery of essential goods, medicines and medical care.

In January 2023, Iran, the main supplier of oil products to Syria, raised the price of energy resources and also refused to supply them on credit. In addition, Tehran asked Syria to pay in advance for new supplies. The representative of the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Exporters’ Union, Hamid Hosseini, said that Tehran itself is under pressure and now cannot afford broad benefits for Damascus.

In addition, last year, with the mediation of Moscow, Syria and Turkey began the settlement process. Official contacts between Damascus and Ankara were severed in 2012 when Turkey supported the armed Syrian opposition.

In December 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan admitted that he would meet with the Syrian leader after preliminary contacts between the heads of the defense ministries, foreign ministries and intelligence agencies of the two countries. Moscow supported this initiative. In mid-December, the first meeting in 10 years of the heads of these departments took place with the mediation of Russia.

In mid-January, preparations were announced for a trilateral meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Syria and Turkey. At the same time, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad set out the complete withdrawal of Turkish troops from the country as a condition for a summit meeting and the restoration of diplomatic relations, while an earthquake prevented further contacts.

Humanitarian and relations issues will be in the spotlight during Assad’s visit to Moscow, experts interviewed by Vedomosti say.

Assad is likely to try to get help from Russia to deal with the aftermath of the earthquake, said Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. We can also talk about helping to overcome the serious fuel crisis in Syria with the help of Moscow’s surplus oil products. Previously, Semyonov notes, Tehran gave funds to Damascus, including for settlements with Moscow.

Also, the parties will discuss bilateral relations against the backdrop of ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, given the fact that such contacts have not been for a long time, says Semenov. It is important for the parties to compare each other’s positions and develop common approaches, especially since Damascus has begun to actively maintain contacts with Oman, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, Semyonov adds.

Finally, the leaders of the states will also be affected by further steps to normalize relations between Damascus and Ankara, where Russia acts as an intermediary, the expert says.

Nikolai Surkov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the IMEMO RAS, agrees that the main issues on the agenda of negotiations in Moscow will be humanitarian assistance to Damascus after the earthquake. The issue of fuel supplies and attracting investments to Syria is also still very relevant, the expert notes, therefore, perhaps the leaders will discuss issues of bilateral trade.

Finally, the issue of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus through the mediation of Moscow will inevitably be on the agenda of negotiations, the expert believes. The Turks show an interest in continuing the dialogue, although Syria puts forward tough conditions on how the Turks should behave in the north of the country, Surkov concludes.