SVO autumn elections – Newspaper Kommersant No. 40 (7485) of 03/10/2023
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Participants of the round table, organized by the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI), discussed on Thursday the image of a candidate who will be in demand in the upcoming elections. In their opinion, the populist wave that swept the world before the pandemic is subsiding, youth and brightness have faded in the eyes of the voter, and the current candidate is now a conservative man of the older age group. And taking into account the current situation, one of the main political trends could be the nomination of participants in the elections or simply those involved in a special military operation (SVO) – just like in the midst of the coronavirus, heroes-doctors and volunteers were “thrown” at the election barricades.
After the Covid epidemic, there was a conservative turn around the world, Gleb Kuznetsov, head of the EISI Expert Council, explained to the round table participants. According to him, the fashion for young and bright politicians has passed: the Turkish presidential candidate from the united opposition is 84 years old, the newly elected president of Austria is over 80. The request for youth has been replaced by a request for conservatism, at the same time, in election campaigns they are moving away from economic issues. No one is talking about the growth of prosperity – it would be nice to keep what was. Accordingly, the conversation is no longer with the middle class, but with the poor. In Russia, too, the ideal candidate is not a boy, but a man who speaks not so much about development as about support, that “we will preserve the good,” Mr. Kuznetsov described the situation.
However, the topic of development is not removed from the agenda, Sergei Perminov, Deputy Secretary of the General Council of United Russia (ER), assured the audience. “There will be a combined approach to the agenda,” he promised. “The demand for maintaining stability will be present, but not to the detriment of the demand for the development of territories.” At the beginning of March, the primaries procedure began in the United Russia – the intra-party selection of candidates for the autumn elections. In 2022, the competition amounted to 6.5 people per place, and now United Russia is also counting on the traditionally high level of competition. “For us, the primaries are a zero wave when we consult with our voters, ask who they want to discuss the development of their territories with for the next five years,” Mr. Perminov explained.
In the course of further discussion, the experts agreed that in Russia only United Russia conducts systematic work with candidates, while the rest of the parties rely on tactical moves and situational decisions. “We can say that there is a United Russia, and there are all the others,” said Natalia Lindigrin, executive director of the ANO Institute for Regional Problems. Here, of course, the specifics of the electoral season affect, she admits: this is a large number of campaigns (including in new regions), and a change of elites, and the opposition agenda as a whole is leveled against the background of the general “rallying around the flag.” As a result, parties today are trying to attract recognizable faces of the federal level, bright candidates from other regions as “locomotives”, or agree on the division of districts so as not to interrupt each other and not to split the opposition electorate, the expert noted.
First of all, competence is expected from a candidate, otherwise the portrait always “rhymes with the agenda,” explained Alesei Martynov, director of the Institute of Recent States. There were times, he recalled, when the trend was set by business structures that delegated people affiliated with them, attracted political strategists to promote them, and tried to negotiate with the parties. The pandemic has become a stress test for the whole country, and among the main candidates were heroic doctors and volunteers (many are already represented in the State Duma). This time, it is possible that one of the main trends will be the heroes participating in the SVO, as well as those structures that are actively involved in supporting the special operation. “I am sure that in the EP primaries we will see such people too,” Mr. Martynov concluded.
“The person who defends our homeland certainly deserves to represent the interests of a significant part of society in the political environment, he proved this with his life,” Pavel Danilin, director of the Center for Political Analysis, supported his colleague, recalling that many deputies also actively participate in the SVO .
Political consultant Yevgeny Minchenko, who did not participate in the round table, agrees with the conclusion that the wave of populism is now subsiding. As for the sought-after candidates, in his opinion, these will be the images of “caring”, “creator” and “fooling around”. “But in general, this issue is very individual, and a sought-after candidate is more likely to fall into the voter’s basic emotion, and today such an emotion is fear,” the expert believes. According to him, in this case, the “caring” candidates will include care for the population in their campaign, the “creators” can propose a plan for the future, and the “fooling around” will reassure that they understand the situation and keep it “in safe hands”. But the voters most likely do not have a request for candidates who are members of the SVO, Mr. Minchenko believes. “But, obviously, there is a directive from the authorities that these people should be encouraged, they should receive a higher status, they should be integrated into society so as not to repeat the mistakes made with the veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya,” the expert sums up.
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