Surveys of employers about their personnel problems show opposite trends

On the eve of the new business season, surveys of employers about their personnel problems show opposite trends. While, according to the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, most employers have already reached the optimal number of employees at their enterprises, the Center for Economic Policy and Management and the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy, on the contrary, record a continuing increase in labor demand. To fill existing vacancies, experts say companies could more actively recruit retirees, youth and migrants.

Some Russian companies may have already reached the limit of the desired number of employees at their enterprises, according to data from the Center for Market Research at the Institute of Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge at the Higher School of Economics. According to an express survey of enterprises, which covers about 4 thousand large and medium-sized enterprises in the manufacturing industry, over the next three to four months, the majority of companies (73%) do not expect fundamental changes in the personnel composition of their workforce compared to August. Almost a quarter of enterprises plan to further increase the number of employees, but 4% of processing companies plan to reduce personnel. As the head of the Central Committee Georgy Ostapkovich notes, it is necessary to use the term “labor shortage” in such conditions “extremely carefully.”

At the same time, as follows from the TsMAKP data, the total demand for jobs in the Russian economy reached 75.7 million people, which is the maximum value over the past three years (since January 2020). Let us remind you that in July of this year the unemployment rate once again reached a historical minimum (for the period of observation of the indicator since 1991) – 3% after the 3.1% recorded in June. The situation is assessed in a similar way at the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy – according to their estimates, a “chronic personnel shortage” forces the industry to maintain a high level of labor hiring plans even during a period of temporary “cooling” of the economy. Thus, if in June-July the balance of hiring plans symbolically decreased (from 17 to 15 points), then in August the restoration of demand forecasts and production plans pushed up hiring plans (up to 22 points, a new record since January-February 2022).

The extremely low unemployment rate in the Russian Federation is a brake on economic growth, the head of the Ministry of Economy, Maxim Reshetnikov, said last week. According to him, the indicator can already be called anomalous – although it leads to faster growth of wages. Among possible measures to balance the labor market, the minister named more active attraction of migrants, expansion of the national project to increase labor productivity and the active introduction of artificial intelligence in production. At the same time, as Mr. Ostapkovich notes, large reserves of unemployed labor remain in the Russian Federation – “young people under the age of 25, where, according to Rosstat, the unemployment rate in July was 28.7%, and people 50 years and older ( accordingly – 19.4%).” “It is possible to involve pensioners and housewives in work if appropriate conditions and adequate wages are provided,” he notes.

Anastasia Manuilova