Summer is in short supply

The federal budget in August closed with a deficit for the third month in a row – this time in the amount of 345 billion rubles. As a result, the accumulated state treasury total surplus shrank from 1.5 trillion rubles. in January-May to only 137 billion rubles. according to the results of eight months and with such dynamics, it will turn into a deficit in September. The “sliding” of the budget towards a deficit with a nominal increase in revenues due to high oil and gas prices is due to an increase in spending, which, in eight months, added almost 3 trillion rubles to last year’s level.

The federal budget deficit in August amounted to approximately 345 billion rubles. from the data of the Ministry of Finance. Approximately – because the figures for the past month are no longer given by the department and they follow from the difference in budget execution for eight and seven months (and the latter can be specified retroactively). deficit in July was approximately 893 billion rubles, in June – 121 billion rubles.

However, thanks to the impressive surplus accumulated in the first half of the year (1.495 trillion rubles in January-May), it remained unchanged in the first eight months, falling in January-August to 137 billion rubles. If the trend does not change, the budget will become deficit by the end of January-September.

The head of the department, Anton Siluanov, previously spoke of a deficit for the year of up to 2% of GDP, in relatively recent documents from the Ministry of Finance, it was about 1.2% of GDP. It is planned to close the “hole” in the budget at the expense of the NWF’s savings.

It should be noted that the budget surplus is melting, despite the fact that its revenues are growing compared to last year. For eight months, they amounted to 17.607 trillion rubles, which is 12% more than for the same period in 2021 (the increase, however, is within the limits of inflation, there is no growth in real terms). The entire nominal growth was provided by oil and gas revenues, which increased on expensive oil and gas by 43% compared to last year (up to 7.818 trillion rubles). However, this increase is for eight months as a whole. Separately, in August, oil and gas fees fell to the lowest level since June last year, amounting to 672 billion rubles. This is 3.4% lower than in August 2021 (despite the fact that Russian oil, even taking into account the discount to Brent, was more expensive than a year ago, the decrease in supplies affected; for more details, see “Kommersant” dated September 6). With non-oil and gas budget revenues, the situation looks worse than with oil and gas: minus 4.3% for eight months (9.788 trillion rubles) and minus 14.3% (1.158 trillion rubles) separately for August.

As a result, the share of fees from the production and sale of oil and gas in the budget for eight months amounted to more than 44% (in 2020, the average for the year was 28%, in 2021 – 36%). Such a dependence of the Russian economy on hydrocarbons, the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin at the recent Mosfinforum called “the biggest weakness of Russia” (with him, however, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov did not agree).

The noted “sliding” of the budget towards deficit against the background of nominal income growth is due to a noticeable increase in spending this year. For eight months they amounted to 17.469 trillion rubles – this is immediately plus 2.85 trillion rubles. (19.5%) compared to the same period last year. In August, year-on-year growth rates of spending decreased to 8.4% and, apparently, will be restrained until the end of the year. This is evidenced by the new budget list of expenditures of the Ministry of Finance for 2022. In it, they are increased by just 2.9 trillion rubles. from the result of last year, to 27.615 trillion rubles. Thus, based on the list, all the expected increase in spending year-on-year based on the results of eight months has already been selected, and further expenses should be carried out approximately according to last year’s schedule, unless new decisions are made to increase them.

Vadim Visloguzov