Strong ruble shakes household savings
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New data from the Central Bank on the financial assets of households (which the regulator refers to as savings) record their reduction from 76.7 trillion rubles. at the beginning of June to 74.6 trillion at the beginning of July 2022. The main reason is the negative currency revaluation, which, according to analysts of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, reduced the volume of citizens’ assets in June by 1.9 trillion rubles. (by 6–7 trillion rubles since the beginning of April) against the backdrop of the fact that the ruble against the dollar rose to 57 rubles. at the beginning of July from 63.5 rubles. at the beginning of June. According to the same logic, about 1.2 trillion rubles have been returned to households since the beginning of July. due to the weakening of the ruble.
In June, taking into account seasonality, the volume of financial assets of citizens in rubles decreased for the third month in a row – against the backdrop of an increase in their ruble component in the last two months and a sharp decline in the currency component for four months in a row. Cash, deposits and securities made the largest contribution to the decline in savings in June (see chart). Negative commissions on foreign currency deposits have become one of the factors behind the increase in foreign currency deposits of citizens in foreign banks in ruble equivalent from 99.6 billion rubles. at the beginning of June to 266.1 billion rubles. at the beginning of July (maximum since February) with their outflow from Russian banks (against the inflow in the previous two months). For the same reason, most likely, in June there was an increase in transferable ruble deposits – in fact, by 1.4 trillion rubles.
Against this backdrop, after two months of contraction in June, extended household debt began to rise again. For a month it grew by 97 billion rubles. (0.4%; according to the results of the second quarter, it decreased by 184 billion rubles). Until March 2022, extended household debt grew by an average of RUB 350 billion. per month with a slowdown due to the tightening of the monetary policy, analysts of the MMI Telegram channel note. “In accordance with the previous trend, in the second quarter, the debt would have increased by about 1 trillion rubles. In fact, there was a reduction of 184 billion 1.2 trillion rubles. can be considered withdrawn from domestic demand. This was one of the main factors in his failure,” they say. In the third quarter, analysts expect an increase in debt by 150 billion rubles. per month and its positive contribution to demand. “However, the dynamics of income may worsen against the background of an increase in unemployment expected in the autumn. Therefore, a noticeable revival of consumer activity should not be expected, ”they conclude.
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