“Statements that the green light is open to Russian fertilizers is a big slyness”

Behind the heated international debate on the extension of the grain deal, the problem of Russian fertilizer exports has faded into the background. Although both are, in fact, twin brothers, they are connected by a single and indivisible “Black Sea Grain Initiative”. The only difference is that the countries left without wheat are in danger of starvation next winter. And for those who do not stock up on fertilizers today, this fate will “shine” in 2023-24.

Now the situation has cleared up, the grain deal – to be. Under the written guarantees of Ukraine “on the non-use of the grain corridor for combat operations against Moscow.” Turkey and the UN act as mediators in such an agreement.

But even in this agreement, the export of fertilizers from Russia, although it appears, is in the background, as a kind of formality. That, they say, yes, the UN will use its authority to seek the lifting of sanctions on the export of fertilizers from Russia. However, she has been “achieving” this for more than three months, and the cart, or rather nitrogen, phosphorus and potash fertilizers, is still there.

To date, about 300 thousand tons of agrochemicals from Russia have accumulated in European ports, which cannot go to other countries. Moscow is ready to simply transfer this volume to developing states as a gesture of goodwill – without taking a penny from them.

But… something prevents the implementation of this plan. What?

The day before, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, as a condition for extending the grain deal, called “the elimination of direct and indirect obstacles to the export of fertilizers.” This is the first and, in fact, the only condition for Ukrainian grain to go across the Black Sea again.

In “direct and indirect barriers” there is complete confusion. In the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West this spring, our agrochemicals are prohibited from being bought by other countries. But in some documents of the European Union they are allowed.

Apparently, these obstacles were what the President’s press secretary had in mind when speaking about the conditions for extending the grain deal. “Execution cannot be pardoned” – no one knows where to put a comma in this phrase, in relation to the export of Russian fertilizers.

Let’s add here other sanctions against Russia, which directly relate to fertilizers. The ban on our ships to enter European ports, problems with chartering ships and cargo insurance … So it turns out that even 300 thousand tons of gratuitous tons lie in various neighboring states as dead weight, not being used for their intended purpose.

So will a comma appear in the right place in the phrase “execution cannot be pardoned”?

According to Rosstat, the production of fertilizers in our country for 8 months of this year decreased by 2.5%. It is expected that by the end of the year, the output of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers in the country will fall by 10%, and potash by 20%. And the export component, for some types, will decrease from 5 to 15%.

These figures are purely indicative, there is no exact data on exports. Even the manufacturing companies themselves categorically refuse to give any forecasts.

The world, let’s say, may be left without Russian fertilizers at all, and it is not difficult to guess what the next year’s harvest will be like.

A ton of the active ingredient of fertilizers gives 4-5 tons of wheat increase per hectare. Russia exports 80% of its mineral water abroad, almost all of these volumes were previously supplied to the EU countries, which today are unfriendly to us. We sell finished grain to Africa. So consider how much Europe will lose crops in case of refusal of our contracts.

According to experts, some African countries have requested our fertilizers, which the European Union will later buy from them. Such a long leverage is obtained, while the problem of buying and selling, if desired, can be solved literally in one day.

The failure in export plans is partially offset by the domestic domestic market. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, our farmers bought 20% more fertilizer for winter crops than a year ago. And they are already starting to make supplies for the spring sowing campaign.

But this does not compensate producers for the damage from insufficient exports. In addition, our domestic market may also “sink”. Prices for the current crop for producers are low and unprofitable. If they do not receive the expected profit, willy-nilly they “save” on fertilizers, there will be no harvest in Russia either.

In general, the coming year for the global food market and for prices will not be easy at all.

“By and large, we don’t care what the harvest will be in Europe next year without our fertilizers,” says Igor Abakumov, Ph.D. so the next one will be even worse.

– If the European Union is so proud and refuses our agricultural chemistry, then why does it not let it into the countries in need?

– All statements by Western politicians that the ban on Russian exports of grain and fertilizers is allegedly frozen and the “green light” is open to us is a big slyness. Banks are prohibited from financing any transactions with Russian counterparties. This means that payments do not go, and the goods do not move. Vessels that serve our cargo cannot call at foreign ports. Loaders involved in rigging with goods under Russian labeling are simply fined. Sanctions have reached, as they say, everyone. Now it is clear why there is no accurate data on the export of Russian agricultural products?