SPIEF launches strategic dialogue with society on finding a path for Russia

The current situation in the world is comparable to the conditions of the pre-war 1914 due to the growing disagreements between the major political blocs against the backdrop of a technological race between them. Therefore, Russia should play a major role in uniting the countries of Eurasia into a single market within the framework of the BRICS in order to create conditions for the rapid development of new technologies. This statement was made by Andrey Bezrukov, President of the Association for the Export of Technological Sovereignty, as part of one of the central sessions of SPIEF-2023 – Horizon 2040: Russia on the World Map.

“We definitely need to create a large technological and economic space. And of course, we can do this only with partners. Alone, we will not succeed: there are too few of us,” he said.

One of the main tasks of Russia in this case should be participation in the creation of a common continental infrastructure that will allow uniting the financial, information, transport and energy systems of the countries of Eurasia.

“It’s important to us that he [континент] was the market. Because now big Eurasia is not a market <...> We must actively look for allies, actively build the logistics of this new large continent,” the speaker says.

Russia also needs to become the main “security exporter” on the continent militarily, politically and economically, Bezrukov emphasizes.

He warned that Russia should begin this work now, any delay could lead to an increase in conflicts in Eurasia, which would not allow countries to unite in the future. “We need to work now, but we are missing this time, unfortunately,” the speaker said.

“Of course, the main metaphor is the border. The border, the borderline state and the expansion of these borders, the opening of the new – this is how the world will experience the next twenty years, ”said the moderator of the session, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Digital and Technological Development Dmitry Peskov.

The need to search for a new world order is motivated by the fact that the world-system model, in which “the core lived by pumping resources from the periphery,” is rapidly losing its effectiveness, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov is sure. “The limits of such a model were reached in the 80s and early 90s. last century. But the USSR collapsed, and colossal resources were thrown into the world. There was an idea that it would exist for a very long time. Now we are faced with the fact that the resources of this model have run out, and it will begin to transform very quickly,” he points out.

The most important priority for each country in this case is the issue of subjectivity, the ability to act independently, the deputy chairman is sure. “We have certain problems with subjectivity. We fall into the identity trap all the time. We do not have a strategic dialogue in society and between the state and society, which is necessary for the development of basic concepts and ideologies. This discussion should launch it, ”Belousov is sure.

Philosopher Alexander Dugin predicted three options for the development of Russia in a global context. The first scenario, the “Global West”, assumes that the whole world becomes a province of Western civilization and moves in only one direction indicated by it. Russia in this scenario is a colony. The second, “Sovereign Russia”, implies the transformation of the country into a nation state, integration into the global world on sovereign terms, but at the same time the world remains Western-centric. The third scenario, “Russia as a sovereign civilization”, is aimed at rejecting the recognition of the West as the normative and only model and developing through its own values ​​and guidelines. At the same time, the last option does not imply that Russia becomes the anti-West, it does not oppose itself to it, but goes its own way.

Comparing the current situation in the world since 1914 is an excessively loose historical analogy, since it is difficult to find matches in the global demographic picture, the state of diplomatic relations and differences in the level of technology between countries, says Alexander Isakov, chief economist for Russia at Bloomberg Economics. Also, the division of countries into blocks weakly correlates with the technology factor, rather, decisions on the distribution of production capacities, research centers are made by global companies, taking into account the already established “blocks” of countries, he points out.

Under the current conditions, the primary task for Russia in the coming years will rather be to restore balance in the domestic market – to stimulate the production of goods and services to meet consumer demand, and not to develop infrastructure in Eurasia, the expert believes. The recovery of consumption, retail trade and services will make a more significant contribution to GDP growth in 2023 and beyond than exports, including exports of construction services, Isakov is sure.

Comparisons with 1914 or 1939 are quite accurate, since the crisis of the international security architecture is obvious, the rules of the game on the world stage are changing – including by forceful instruments (the NWO in Ukraine is only one of these elements), argues the associate professor of the basic department of Eurasian economic integration of the Institute of Law and national security RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation Sergey Rekeda. The task of large-scale international integration of the Eurasian states has been standing for a long time and since the formation of the EAEU in 2015 it should have been the main one, Russia is indeed somewhat behind in strengthening technological ties with neighboring countries, the expert believes. At the same time, the creation of exclusively trade unions becomes insufficient, it is necessary to resort to full-scale integration of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS blocs, in which countries in Eurasia will participate in joint technological projects, he is sure.

The Russian economy remains integrated into the world economy, we are reorienting trade flows to new markets and finding new suppliers, and we continue to actively trade with the outside world, said Boris Kopeikin, First Deputy General Director of the CSR. According to the updated forecast for the socio-economic development of the Ministry of Economics, merchandise exports in the coming years will exceed 20% of GDP, imports – 15% of GDP, he recalls. For successful interaction with other countries in the face of sanctions pressure, it is really necessary to develop and reorient financial, transport, and other infrastructure and remove mutual barriers, which, in fact, is being done now by active joint efforts of the authorities and business, the expert is sure. But in this case, one should not be limited only to Eurasia, BRICS is also South Africa, Brazil, Africa, and South America, adds Kopeikin.

It is extremely important for Russia to build Eurasian logistics – this will help to significantly increase trade with Asian countries, with which we are now strengthening relations, says Professor of the Department of Corporate Governance and Innovation of the Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanov Andrey Poltarykhin. If the three major players – Russia, China and India – develop common and fair rules of the game in the BRICS or SCO format, it will be possible to obtain stability in Eurasia, he is sure. It is expected that in 20 years the Russian Federation will more actively develop its own territory, mainly the Arctic part, the expert believes. It is already becoming an arena for the clash of the world’s leading powers, where Russia wants to establish a long-term navigation along the Northern Sea Route, he specifies. Rural areas of the country, where people left from the beginning of collectivization and the first five-year plans, will also be actively developed, adds Poltarykhin.