Speculators liked SPB Exchange – Newspaper Kommersant No. 153 (7354) dated 08/23/2022

The ban on short sales and the increased risk rate did not prevent SPB Exchange shares from becoming the leaders of growth on August 22. Experts explain the situation by the desire of speculators to buy shares in order to return them to the broker. Over time, trading volumes and price fluctuations may decrease, they warn. In general, according to analysts, the stock market is experiencing low turnover, and for the growth of the Moscow Exchange index, significant factors are needed.

The trading session on August 22 ended with the growth of the Moscow Exchange index by 1.5%, up to 2228 points. Once again, the leader of the increase was the shares of SPB Exchange, which gained more than 16% by the end of trading and showed a turnover of 2.5 times more than at the end of last week. At the same time, a number of restrictions imposed by the National Clearing Center (NCC; part of the Moscow Exchange group) began to operate on the securities of the exchange on Monday – short sales are prohibited, and the risk rate is increased to 100%, which deprives investors of the opportunity to make unsecured transactions. On its website, the NCC explained the introduction of the bans by “increased risks of trading in shares and futures for SPB Exchange shares in the absence of information about the financial condition of the issuer.”

Closing short positions leads to an even greater increase in quotes, as speculators have to buy shares in order to return them to the broker, explained Artem Autlev, an analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments.

According to him, such anomalies (growth at high prices) are observed precisely at the moment when securities are called back from the “shortists” and shoulder positions are prohibited. “The measures introduced will have to help reduce speculative activity, and this will probably lead to a decrease in trading volumes and the range of quotation fluctuations over time,” said Igor Dodonov, an analyst at FG Finam.

In general, such strong movements in the shares of SPB Exchange are largely due to speculative interest, Mr. Dodonov believes. He recalled that from the beginning of the year to the beginning of August, the company’s capitalization has fallen more than ten times and “speculators are trying to disperse its securities using local positive news, while the risks for investing in these securities remain very high.”

The growth of SPB Exchange stock quotes on August 22 is supported by the news that the exchange has increased since August 24 the number of securities of international companies (from 350 to 500) available for conclusion of exchange transactions at the main trading session from 10:00 Moscow time, Mr. Autlev believes. Earlier, according to him, similar news acted as growth factors, however, there are no fundamental reasons for such growth in the context of current infrastructure and sanctions risks.

In general, on Monday, the market showed mixed dynamics – most liquid stocks traded in the green zone, Georgy Vashchenko, deputy director of the analytical department of Freedom Finance Global, noted.

The Moscow Exchange index, according to the expert, has risen to the area of ​​the upper border of the side corridor, in which it has been since July. In addition to shares of SPB Exchange, shares of gas companies showed significant growth (NOVATEK – +6%, Gazprom – +2.3%). Artem Autlev explained that such dynamics is observed on the news that gas prices in Europe have exceeded $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

However, turnover, according to Mr. Vashchenko, is still low on the market. He does not exclude the transition to a correction on Tuesday or Wednesday, and this week the focus is on the reports of retailers Ozon, M.Video and Detsky Mir – “papers in this sector can become growth leaders.” At the same time, according to him, one should not expect a rally from the shares of the oil and gas sector, “they are likely to correct after the price of oil, which, against the general negative background (stock markets in the US show a noticeable decrease), are being corrected.”

Mr. Vashchenko believes that by the end of the week the Moscow Exchange index may correct in the range of 2100-2150 points. And in autumn, the triggers for the growth of the Russian stock market, according to the expert, can be the flow of funds from the population from deposits opened at high interest rates in February-March, as well as interim dividends of Russian companies (hundreds of billions of rubles).

Ksenia Kulikova