Speaker of the US House of Representatives persuaded not to go to Taiwan

The new speaker of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy (who holds the third position in the American state hierarchy) will not travel to Taiwan to meet with the President of the Republic of China (partially recognized state) Tsai Ing-wen. This will avoid further deterioration of relations with Beijing, which considers the island to be the territory of the PRC. Instead, McCarthy will host Tsai in the “coming weeks” or April on US soil in California on his way to Latin America. On March 7, 2023 reported about it referring to diplomatic sources of Financial Times (FT), Reuters, CNBC and South China Morning Post (SCMP).

According to CNBC sources, officials in both Washington and Taipei are seriously concerned that the arrival of the speaker of the US House of Representatives could complicate the situation in US-China relations. The FT interlocutors explained that it was the Taiwanese side who convinced them not to come to McCarthy Island, sharing with the speaker the threats allegedly coming from Beijing in the context of a possible visit.

A previous visit to Taipei by McCarthy’s predecessor as Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and her meeting with the Taiwanese leadership provoked an escalation of military-political tensions between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait in August 2022. Beijing then conducted unprecedented military maneuvers around the island, including naval, air and missile components, and Washington advanced an aircraft carrier strike group to the island.

The proposal to meet specifically on American territory also came from Taipei, and the arguments of its representatives, according to the FT, convinced the speaker.

Tsai Ing-wen, according to the FT, is preparing to visit Guatemala and Belize in early April 2023, which have official diplomatic relations with Taipei, and make traditional transit stops in California and New York. The latter houses the elite Cornell University, of which Tsai is an alumnus. However, the Taiwan side has not officially announced the President’s visit to Central America.

Back in January, they sent Tsai an invitation to speak at the Reagan Library in California, the Ronald Reagan Institute told SCMP. At the same time, they noted that so far “there is no confirmation whether she will agree or when she will arrive, if she agrees.” In addition, the Ronald Reagan Foundation noted that the invitation was “open” to speak “whenever she was in the United States.”

In January, the American Punchbowl News reported, citing sources, that the Pentagon was considering the possible consequences of McCarthy’s visit to Taiwan and was “preparing” for it. At the same time, a number of American lawmakers have already visited Taiwan in recent months. On Feb. 23, Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher was on the island, heading the newly formed House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.

McCarthy, in an interview with CNBC on March 6, declined to say for sure whether he would visit Taiwan. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre at a briefing on the same day also declined to comment on this information. Speaking to reporters in parliament, Republic of China Defense Minister Chiu Guocheng on March 7 assured that he knew nothing about the planned meeting between Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy. The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry and the Presidential Office on the same day refused to confirm plans for foreign visits by the head of state, Radio Taiwan reports.

At the same time, on Tuesday, March 7, Qin Gang, the new head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory, criticized Washington’s ties with Taipei, as well as its policy in the Indo-Pacific region in general.

In the general context of the Taiwan problem, Qin Gang emphasized that the United States does not tire of talking about respect and support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. But, according to him, in fact, the American side does not respect the territorial integrity of the PRC by delivering arms and diplomatic exchanges with the island, although it does not officially recognize the independence of Taiwan in accordance with the principle of “strategic uncertainty” enshrined in 1979. “Why is the United States asking China not to supply arms to Russia while he continues to sell arms to Taiwan?” Qin protested.

The very fact that the Taiwanese leadership met with high-ranking US officials, even on American soil, has already led to military-political crises in relations between Washington and Beijing. Thus, a private visit in 1995 to the United States, in particular, to Cornell University, by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, who headed the island from 1988 to 2000, provoked the so-called third military-political crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1995-1996.

The transit stops of Taiwanese presidents in the United States on their way to Latin American diplomatic partners have been a widely used practice for the past two decades, eliminating the need for “dangerous” official visits, says Yana Leksyutina, a professor at St Petersburg University and a sinologist. According to her, the US ruling circles are well aware of where Beijing’s “red flags” are placed, and have also learned how to skillfully manipulate Beijing, getting the reaction they need at the moment. “Probably, it is situationally more advantageous now not to aggravate the situation in the Taiwan issue, which does not mean a change in Washington’s policy towards Taiwan,” says Leksyutina.

She admits that in the future, the deliberate aggravation of the situation around Taiwan will happen more than once. “Although, even if McCarthy’s visit to Taiwan did take place, nothing serious would have happened – the precedent for such demarches has actually already been set by Pelosi’s visit,” Leksyutina believes. The possible visit of the Taiwanese president to the United States is unlikely to lead to an escalation comparable to the crisis of 1995-1996 or August 2022, since it will not take place in Washington, the expert is sure.

Tsai’s visit to the United States, although “transit”, is still a risky event for US-China relations, said Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies. Much, in particular, Beijing’s reaction, he said, depends on the final protocol for the appearance of the Taiwanese president on American soil and the content of meetings with American officials. So, her last “transit” visit on her way to Paraguay took place in 2019, but she met with American statesmen of a non-first order, recalls Kashin.