“Space Pearl Harbor”: the Americans recognized the technological lag behind China

– Vladimir Semenovich, I dare to suggest that the confusion in the American minds is caused by the sharp rapprochement between China and Russia, especially by the recent visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping?

– Undoubtedly. I won’t comment on the visit itself – quite a lot has already been said about it, moreover, in a live broadcast. I will pay attention to only one aspect – the presence in the Chinese delegation of the new Minister of Defense – 65-year-old General Li Shangfu. He is under US sanctions for acquiring 10 Su-35 fighter jets from Russia in 2017 and an S-400 air defense system in early 2018. The Chinese, of course, do not care about American sanctions. But here it is important that Li Shangfu is not an ordinary military man. He doesn’t draw arrows on maps or lead regiments into battle. Its task is to equip its armed forces with the most advanced weapons. And he successfully achieves this. He performs approximately the same role that was once played by the youngest Stalinist People’s Commissar for Armaments, and then by the Minister of Defense of the USSR Ustinov. He was not a military professional in the truest sense of the word, but brilliantly rearmed our army. Li Shaozhu, after graduating from the PLA Defense Science and Technology University, worked at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center. At the age of 45, he became the director of the cosmodrome and led it until 2013. In 2016-2017, he served as Deputy Commander of the PLA Strategic Support Forces. In 2017-2022, he headed the Department of Troop Training and Supply of the Central Military Council of China.

– And what are the results of his work?

– Here, of course, the results are not only of his work, but of a purposeful Chinese policy.

Let me remind you that Xi Jinping on March 13, in the first unprecedented speech in his third presidential term, promised to strengthen national security and turn the armed forces into a “Great Steel Wall”.

Speaking at the closing of the annual meeting of the Chinese Parliament, Xi Jinping stressed the need for comprehensive modernization of the national defense and armed forces.

“Security is the basis of development, stability is the precondition for prosperity,” Xi Jinping said.

And indeed, in his first decade in power, Xi Jinping introduced sweeping reforms to the Chinese military to make it a modern fighting force and turn its navy into the largest in the world.

China’s annual military budget in 2023 will increase by 7.2% to about 1.55 trillion yuan ($224 billion) amid rising geopolitical tensions and a regional arms race.

– But the so-called “collective West”, especially the United States, also do not skimp on military spending …

“But they didn’t expect that from China. There is a report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published at the end of February 2023. It warned Western governments that China dominates the critical technologies of the future in a wide range of areas after establishing “staggering” leadership in research and development.

Here are the key points. The ASPI report says that China is ahead of the US in 37 out of 44 technologies. These included artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, quantum technology, and advanced manufacturing. The institute says China is particularly dominant in defense, security and space research. It turns out that the US is the leading innovator in only seven technologies, including quantum computing and vaccines, and is second only to China in most other categories.

In 2022, for example, China surprised US intelligence agencies when it tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the globe, demonstrating the advanced capabilities of this technology. Chinese institutions also dominate research on drones, autonomous systems, advanced optical systems, artificial technologies, and machine learning.

– What especially frightened the West in the technological research of China and Russia against the background of their rapprochement?

– Achievements in space technologies. Note that Chinese scientists and the military are carefully studying the development of the military conflict in Ukraine. A half-dozen articles by PLA researchers highlight China’s concerns about the role of Elon Musk’s US space exploration company SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network in securing Ukrainian military communications in the face of Russian missile strikes on the country’s power grid.

“The excellent performance of Starlink satellites in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict will certainly encourage the US and Western countries to make extensive use of Starlink in possible hostilities in Asia,” says a September (2022) article co-authored by researchers from the PLA Army Engineering University.

The conflict has also led to a clear consensus among Chinese researchers that drone warfare deserves more investment. China is testing drones in the skies over Taiwan.

“These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as a “punch” for future wars,” notes one article in the tank combat magazine published by the state-owned weapons manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the PLA, which describes the ability of drones to neutralize enemy defenses.

And now, attention: the authors considered it “urgent” for China, which seeks to develop its own similar satellite network, find ways to shoot down or disable Starlink. China needs the ability to shoot down Starlink low-orbit satellites and protect its tanks and helicopters from Javelin missiles. Of course, all this is projected onto a possible conflict with US-led forces in Asia.

– How are they going to shoot down the satellites of a potential enemy? Compete with Elon Musk?

– Why not? China’s reaction to Starlink and OneWeb first became apparent in 2020, when applications were submitted to the International Telecommunication Union in Geneva for just under 13,000 (!) Chinese satellites. Beijing then declared “satellite internet” as a national “new infrastructure” project, and set up a high-level state-owned China Satellite Network Group in 2021 to oversee the satellite constellation project known as “Guowang.”

But they also planned such a surprise as a phantom space strike.

– Phantom, that is – false? Why is it needed if it does not pose a real threat?

– That’s the point. How can one understand whether this strike carries a threat or not? No way. According to a South China Morning Post report, Chinese engineers have developed a new space spoofing system designed to force missile defense systems to launch interceptors against false target signatures in space.

The report, which calls the system a “phantom space strike,” says a team from People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Unit 63891 ran computer simulations of a ballistic missile launch against a state-of-the-art missile defense system. The system carried three small satellites instead of a lethal warhead. Upon reaching space, the ballistic missile fired its satellite payload, which then generated spoofing signals to fool the target’s missile defense radar, making the unarmed missile look like a serious threat. And the missile defense system fired an interceptor missile at a non-existent target.

– The meaning is clear: the strategic goal of the Chinese tactics of phantom strikes is to force the enemy to shoot back at false targets and open the positions of anti-missiles. And what is so threatening for the United States in space that they came up with in Russia?

– Here, too, there is news that is unpleasant for the Americans. In July 2020, Business Insider reported that Russia had tested a possible matryoshka doll of space-based anti-satellite weapons. The report notes that a Russian satellite involved in the test spawned a smaller satellite. And this smaller satellite fired a projectile that Russia describes as an “inspector satellite.” It is clear that such an “inspection” for an alien satellite will be fatal.

In August 2022, the Asia Times noted that Russian matryoshka satellites could hide among space debris, gathering intelligence or sending out jamming and spoofing signals to confuse satellite navigation and missile guidance systems.

– That is, theoretically, we can already talk about the global destruction of US satellite constellations?

“This is the worst thing for Americans. US military space experts are very pessimistic. Thus, according to military analyst Brandon Weichert, the United States is facing the inevitable “space Pearl Harbor” as a result of a joint attack by China and Russia on US satellites, which form the basis of the national communications and commercial infrastructure. While serving in Congress and advising the US military, Weichert came to the conclusion that China and Russia pose the greatest threat to WGS (Wideband Global SATCOM system) satellites of the US military.

“Seventy percent of the US military systems, especially the US Army, rely on WGS,” he said. “If you remove even a few of these constellations, we won’t have enough spare ones. You can talk about the complete destruction of the US military in about half an hour. In his opinion, it is enough for China or Russia to disable “five or six satellites to disable an entire constellation of US satellites.”

– He does not exaggerate our common capabilities?

– I hope no. He claims that “Russia has one of the largest space programs, the second largest in the world. In space, they developed with the Chinese what is known as the US anti-space capability.”

For example, Russia, along with China, has developed “co-orbital satellites” that can “hook on US systems in geostationary orbit, physically push them out of their orbit, and drop them back to Earth.”

What scares the expert the most is that “it will take a long time before our people on the ground, who control these satellites, realize that we have been attacked,” he said. “This time frame represents a huge window of opportunity for the Russians or Chinese to use for their conventional forces.”

Weichert confirmed that in the event of such an attack, the US would not be able to replace its satellites in time.

“The Russians and the Chinese have many different capabilities in the ASAT field, they can not only physically de-orbit our systems, but also blind them with lasers or use conventional anti-satellite weapons,” he said. – They could use a lot of other possibilities, which would basically exceed our ability to replace the WGS or similar satellite constellation. If these satellites fail, then suddenly the US military will become deaf, dumb, blind and completely useless.”

Of course, American analysts also talk about other threats that China allegedly poses to America. Here and a sharp increase in the fleet of aircraft, superiority in warships, a larger number of shipyards in which these ships are built. Well, there’s nothing new here. Even Napoleon claimed that God is always on the side of large battalions. And the entire collective West imagines itself to be the heirs of Napoleon. It is we, the naive, who follow Suvorov’s precept: “We win not by numbers, but by skill.”

They even complain about the lack of labor for their shipyards and factories.

But the main thing, after all, is space. Therefore, it seems to me that the presence in the Chinese delegation of General Li Shangfu, whose entire career is connected with space exploration, alarmed the United States most of all.

– Perhaps an equal balance of power in “Star Wars” will become a deterrent to unleashing a third world war?

– That’s all hope. That is why President Xi’s visit to Moscow is rightly considered historic.