Sociologists have found out what voters want from Vladimir Putin and the presidential elections

The Expert Institute for Social Research (EISR) held a round table on Thursday “Presidential Elections: Public Demand on the Eve of the Election Campaign.” On it, sociologists shared data from recent polls about the upcoming vote, which turned out to be very complimentary for Vladimir Putin, who has not yet announced his decision about participating in the elections. As it turned out, the vast majority of Russians consider these elections important, want the current president to run for a new term, and have positive emotions towards him. At the same time, more than half of those surveyed expect the campaign to go smoothly.

The EISI round table, announced on December 4, took place a few hours after the Federation Council adopted a resolution calling elections for March 17, 2024, thereby giving the official start to the presidential campaign. The participants of the event at the Rossiya Segodnya International Information Agency approached it fully armed, presenting the results of two all-Russian sociological studies on this topic.

VTsIOM conducted its telephone survey on November 30, commissioned by EISI, on a sample of 1,600 respondents (statistical error does not exceed 2.5%). Answering the question about when the next presidential elections should take place, 61% of respondents were able to correctly name the day, month or at least year of the elections, said Mikhail Mamonov, a representative of VTsIOM. “I would rate this figure as quite high, considering that the election campaign is just beginning. The majority of Russians are already included in the campaign,” the sociologist concluded. But, as follows from the results published on the VTsIOM website, only 36% of respondents were able to name the exact date, month or at least time of year, another 25% mentioned 2024, 6% were mistaken in all indicators, and 33% found it difficult to answer.

However, Mr. Mamonov had other, more optimistic figures. Thus, 84% of Russians said that they consider these elections important “for themselves personally.” “This figure is even higher among those who declare their participation in the elections—92%,” the sociologist emphasized (78% of respondents declared their intention to vote). These elections were recognized as an important event “for the country” by 89% of respondents (among those who declared participation in voting – 94%): 32% – because it is “a way to influence the policy of the state, government”, 20% – because they consider elections “an important institution of democracy or tool for the formation of power,” 16% – because they see this as “a way to support and help the current government, the president.” Another 11% of respondents answered that the future of the country and people depends on elections, and 6% perceive them as their “civic duty.” And from the answers to the question “In your opinion, will the upcoming Russian presidential elections be more calm or violent?” It turned out that 54% of Russians expect a calm campaign, 12% – a stormy one, and 31% found it difficult to give their assessment.

In turn, representative of the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) Larisa Pautova spoke about a door-to-door survey conducted on a sample of 6,100 respondents from October 21 to November 13. This was an initiative study by the FOM with a statistical error of 2.2%, mostly dedicated specifically to Vladimir Putin. The first question was whether the incumbent president should be re-elected for a new term. Four years ago, 33% of respondents answered positively, a year ago – 62%, and now – 70%. The share of those who believe that Mr. Putin should resign from his post, but remain in the country’s leadership, decreased from 33% in 2019 to 15% in 2023, and the percentage of respondents in favor of his complete departure from politics decreased from 23% in 2019 to 8% in 2023.

FOM also asked what feelings and emotions the figure of Vladimir Putin has recently evoked in Russians, allowing any number of answers to be given to this question. As a result, the majority of respondents chose positive emotions: 44% named trust, 34% – hope, 31% – calmness and confidence in the future, 30% – pride, 16% – gratitude, 9% – sympathy and love. Negative feelings were much less common: anxiety and uncertainty about the future were mentioned by 11% of respondents, disappointment – 7%, mistrust – 6%, fear – 3%, shame – 3%, antipathy and hostility – 2%. Mrs. Pautova warned that it is incorrect to summarize these indicators: “We can say that (in total.— “Kommersant”) Vladimir Putin evokes negative feelings in no more than 11% of respondents.” The share of those who believe that Mr. Putin’s activities as president are in the interests of people like them increased from 52% in 2018 to 67% in 2023. And according to 74% of Russians, the head of state understands what ordinary people care about and knows their needs and interests.

A separate question was devoted to youth: respondents were asked whether young people have the opportunity to realize themselves, find application for their abilities and achieve success in life. In 2018, 58% answered this question positively, and now – 77% of respondents. Larisa Pautova admitted that these data surprised her, since she has been working on youth problems for a long time and was rather inclined to believe that young people do not see suitable social elevators for themselves. But the survey data suggests the opposite: 63% of respondents aged 18–30 believe that they now have a better chance of success than five years ago (55% of respondents aged 31–45).

After the presentation of the polls, political scientists got involved. “You know how I would sublimate all these emotions (a psychological defense mechanism when socially unacceptable impulses are transformed into socially acceptable behavior – “Kommersant”)….” began the director of the Institute of Modern States, Alexey Martynov. “I summed it up,” corrected the round table moderator, EISI employee Ekaterina Sokolova. “Yes, I summed it up. I summed it up in one phrase: such concentrated confidence,” the political scientist agreed with the edit.

Ms. Sokolova also gave her own assessment. According to her, the fact that people now, despite times of crisis, declare positive emotions, has its own explanation: “When trust is destroyed, anxiety increases, it is important for people in crisis situations – I speak as a conflictologist who has studied these processes – it is important to be proud of themselves, its community.”

The head of the EISI expert council, Gleb Kuznetsov, in turn, added a geopolitical aspect to the discussion. In his opinion, from the data presented in the surveys it follows that the elections will be held calmly and in an orderly manner, although Russia’s foreign opponents will still try to interfere in the process and convince everyone that “the Russians have again done something wrong and ugly.” However, there is no need to worry about this, Mr. Kuznetsov assured those present, since legitimacy is an internal concept.

Andrey Vinokurov