SMEs did not wait for the proceeds – Kommersant

After a sharp recovery in small and medium-sized enterprises at the beginning of the year, optimism in the sector waned already in March, according to the latest data from the index of business and investment activity of SMEs. The improvement in sentiment was previously explained by the “emotional” components of the indicators – expectations of higher demand. However, the hopes of SMEs for revenue growth did not materialize – more and more companies reported a decrease in sales. Now the index is held by growing investments and plans of enterprises to expand hiring – however, in the face of a shortage of personnel, small businesses may not be able to compete with large enterprises.

Although the index of business activity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) continues to remain in the growth zone, in March its pace slowed down. Thus, according to the results of a survey of 1.8 thousand companies, the RSBI index (determined by a joint study of PSB, Opora Rossii and Magram Market Research) fell in March to 53.5 points (p.) against 53.9 p. .7 p. in January. Recall that a sharp improvement in the health of the sector at the beginning of the year was associated with emotional assessments, the optimism of enterprises was then mainly explained by expectations of sales growth, and not their actual dynamics (see Kommersant of March 2).

According to data for March, the expectations of small and medium-sized businesses did not materialize. Only 11% of respondents reported an increase in sales in March, which is almost three times less than expected (32%), while in February, revenue grew at 12% of companies. 47% reported a decrease in sales in March, while only 18% expected such a scenario. Last month, companies were also less likely to report a decline in revenue (40%). Already 35% of companies are counting on a recovery in sales in the next three months – however, the share of pessimists has also increased to 22%. The lack of own finance remains a key barrier to the development of SMEs and offsets the effect of the availability of debt financing. Despite a slight decline in March, the loans component remains in the growth zone, while satisfied demand for loans in the sector increased from 25% to 29% over the six months.

The positive momentum in sector sentiment was supported by the HR and investment components. Thus, in March the share of enterprises that reduced investments decreased (from 10% to 8%), and the share of those that increased investments slightly increased (from 18% to 19%). Expectations for future investments remained stable – they are expected to grow by 28%. The “personnel” component has grown to its highest since the summer of 2021. In March, the share of those who already hired staff increased by 2 percentage points (pp) (to 11%), with 28% of respondents reporting plans to expand the staff (plus 4 pp). However, these plans may also not come true due to fierce competition in hiring with large enterprises – we recall that IEP surveys recorded the largest labor shortage for the entire monitoring period in 1996-2023 (see Kommersant of April 18).

The business activity of medium-sized businesses slowed down most noticeably — from 62.1 percentage points to 57.5 percentage points — against the backdrop of a decrease in actual revenue. The sentiment of micro-enterprises continues to stagnate in the neutral zone (50 p.) – worsening sales figures also leveled positive changes in other components. Only the small business index showed a slight increase (from 56.1 points to 56.4 points) due to more positive expectations for hiring in the future and plans to expand investment activity. In terms of sectors, positive dynamics, also based on positive expectations regarding revenue and investment activity of companies, was recorded in the service sector – from 51.5 p to 53.2 p. The business activity of manufacturing and trading companies worsened slightly. The main trigger for the decline in activity in these industries was the decline in actual revenue and its prospects.

Diana Galieva