Small and medium-sized businesses showed an increase in business activity at the beginning of the year
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Small and medium-sized businesses showed an increase in business activity at the beginning of the year: the RSBI index (calculated by PSB, Opora Rossii and NAFI based on a survey of 1.8 thousand companies) amounted to 55.8 points in January after 54.3 points in December 2023 (values above 50 points mean an increase in activity, below – its compression). Traditionally, at the beginning of the year, positive dynamics were supported by the optimism of entrepreneurs in terms of sales – this component of the index has recovered after the decline in December 2023 and is close to peak summer values (see chart). A third of those surveyed expect revenue growth – the maximum over the last six months; reductions – only 22% (minimum since mid-2023). Actual sales figures remain “modest”, which is explained by a decrease in consumer activity after the holidays: 34% of SMEs in January indicated a decrease in sales and only 20% indicated an increase.
A further increase in business activity will likely be limited by a decrease in the availability of financing against the backdrop of high lending rates. Although the share of loan approvals remained high (more than 70%), the level of refusals also increased (to the maximum since October 2023): in January, the share of those who could not obtain them increased by 2 percentage points (pp.) and amounted to 9%.
Fixing the prerequisites for cooling demand for loans, PSB Senior Vice President Kirill Tikhonov predicts an increase in the demand for preferential lending programs. Note that forecasts about the future of monetary policy also speak in favor of this scenario: in the coming months, as is clear after the last meeting of the Bank of Russia, it will remain tough. There is no talk yet of an imminent policy reversal (see Kommersant, February 17).
It was probably the opportunities for preferential investment lending that supported the investment component in January – the index amounted to 60.1 points. 31% of entrepreneurs announced plans to expand their business (26% in December 2023). However, the actual indicators of investment activity have not yet increased: in January, 22% of SMEs invested in enterprises, which is 2 percentage points less than a month earlier.
Small companies still have problems with attracting personnel: in January, only 12% of respondents hired employees – the minimum since the spring of 2023. The situation is complicated by the fact that SMEs have to compete with large companies for personnel.
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