Siluanov spoke about the possible impact of the crisis in the United States on the Russian economy

The emergence of an economic or financial crisis in the United States will also affect Russia due to a decrease in global demand for the export of Russian goods, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said during a speech at the Knowledge Society marathon.

“Will crises affect us? You said in the USA. Of course, they will, because these crises in one country or another will affect the global economy as a whole. We are part of the global economy, and, accordingly, the demand for our products and services will decrease. It will affect us,” Siluanov said. In this case, Russia will have to redirect exports to other markets or produce such products that will be in demand in a crisis, so that it is competitive, the minister added. “If I said that we don’t care, I would be too optimistic and would be wrong,” Siluanov stressed.

According to Siluanov, Russia has “grown” into world trade – countries need Russian products, and not only energy. Russia manufactures and exports, including fertilizers and agricultural products, as well as high-tech products, such as engines for spacecraft, the minister said.

“We have always been guided by one simple goal, no matter what the crises will be: oil prices will fall, the economy will [сократится], banks will collapse – American or otherwise. We always need to ensure the plans that we have foreseen for ourselves and finance what is envisaged in the budget ruble,” Siluanov said. First of all, these are social expenses, technological development and infrastructure, the minister noted. “There should be enough money for all this, no matter what sanctions or restrictions or crises occur in the world,” he stressed.

Problems in the US financial system will hit regional banks the hardest – this could lead to a major credit crisis in the US economy, which, in turn, seriously increases the risks of a recession, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University (known predicted the beginning and development of the 2008 global financial crisis). According to him, regional US banks are now facing serious stability risks due to the low level of deposit insurance, which could worsen the situation.

The discussion about a possible recession in the US resumed in expert circles after the bankruptcy of three large banks at once in March – Silvergate, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The latter ranked 16th in terms of assets, and its collapse was the largest since the financial crisis of 2008. Bank of America (BofA) chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett described 12 main signs of an early recession in the US economy. Among them are the negative trends in the US labor market, the decline in manufacturing activity indices and the worsening conditions in the global financial market.

In his speech, Siluanov noted that today “we are in the first acute phase of the change in the world economic order.” According to him, countries with developing economies are crowding out countries with the so-called developed economies. Siluanov noted that there were such examples in history 500 years ago – “one strong superpower left, another came in its place.” Yet global change is never painless, he added. “We see that unfriendly countries are trying to eliminate their competitors through sanctions and trade restrictions. Of course, the restrictions affect Russia,” the minister said.

The task of the financiers is to make sure that the impact is minimal, Siluanov added. There are three components to financial sustainability for this.

The first is the functioning institutions of responsible macroeconomic policy, including fiscal rules, a floating exchange rate, and inflation targeting. The budget should not generate instability in the financial system, Siluanov stressed. The second is a developed financial infrastructure, including the development of an analogue of SWIFT and the creation of its own payment system. The third component is technological sovereignty, that is, localization in such industries as microelectronics, aircraft engineering, and the production of machine tools and equipment. “We did not pay due attention to this, we expected that the global economy would develop further,” he added.