Sergey Lavrov headed for Africa

On January 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began his second African tour of the year with a working visit to the Republic of South Africa (South Africa, together with Russia and China, is part of the BRICS group). There, the Russian minister has already met with his South African counterpart Naledi Pandor and with the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa.

The visit took place against the background of preparations for joint naval exercises between Russia, South Africa and China, which will be held from February 17 to 27 near the coast of South Africa. During the press conference, Lavrov said he respected the country’s equidistant position on the conflict in Ukraine.

In turn, Pandor noted that the right of South Africa to participate in joint training with Russia and China “is unacceptable to question”: “South Africa is a sovereign country and decides where and with whom to conduct exercises.” Lavrov called them “transparent” and in line with the rule of law, commenting, in his opinion, on the “mixed” reaction of Western countries and the United States, which have “more than 200 bases around the globe” and “believe that only they can conduct exercises around the world “.

This is not the first meeting between Lavrov and his South African counterpart. In September 2022, they talked on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly: the Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Africa publicly condemned the bill currently being considered by the US Senate, directed against Russia’s activities in Africa. Washington wants to have the right to monitor the activities of “individuals and organizations directly or indirectly employed by Russia or financially or politically associated with Russia.” President Ramaphosa also condemned the bill, noting that it “marginalizes” Africa.

The previous large-scale tour of the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Africa took place after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, in July 2022, and included Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and the Republic of the Congo. As part of the current visit, Lavrov will visit Angola, as well as, for the first time in the history of bilateral relations, Eswatini (formerly known as Swaziland) and Eritrea.

Russia and Eritrea, which Lavrov will visit for the first time, are connected not only by support in the UN General Assembly, but also by a complex history of relations during the Soviet period, because Moscow helped keep the country within Ethiopia, says researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Lukyanov. “Now the basis of possible Russian-Eritrean cooperation is the prospect of Russia’s profitable economic penetration into the strategic region of the Horn of Africa as a potential “entry point” to African markets as a whole,” he notes.

Eritrea occupies a strategic position at the exit from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean – at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Before gaining independence in 1991, after several decades of war, it was part of Ethiopia, allied to Moscow, and at that time, the only base in Africa for the Soviet Navy, Nokra, existed on the future Eritrean territory. In 1999–2000 There was a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the disputed territory around the city of Badme. In 2018, the new Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed Ali, agreed to transfer the territory around Badme to Eritrea, for which he received the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring growing Ethiopian economy needs access to the Red Sea, lost after Eritrea gained independence, and with the mediation of Qatar, the two countries previously managed to sign reconciliation agreements, Lukyanov notes. “Arab countries, primarily Qatar, a partner of the sanctioned Eritrea, as well as the UAE, which used the country as a base for conducting military operations in Yemen, are investing in it and the surrounding countries, they are interested in the emergence of new players in the Red Sea region, except for the United States, in particular Russia and China (the latter already has a naval base in neighboring Djibouti),” says Lukyanov.

Russia, as part of its turn to the East and South, is extremely interested in strengthening its position in the region, Lukyanov notes: “It is not in vain that in 2019-2021. negotiations were held on the Russian naval base in Sudan, on the Red Sea, because the presence in two of its points strengthens the position of Moscow, and after that there are guarantees for Russian business.” Russian diplomacy here cannot be limited to relying on Sudan alone, which, under the influence of the difficult domestic political situation and US pressure, can change its orientation at any moment, unlike Eritrea, the expert believes.

Moscow has always paid great attention to the African direction of its foreign policy, this trend has only intensified after 2014, notes Rakhimbek Bobokhonov, senior researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Institute of Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia’s influence in Africa is growing against the background of the weakening of the positions of former colonial countries, and Moscow is already developing ties with states where there was no significant presence of the USSR, an example of which is active activity in the Central African Republic and Mali. Lavrov’s visit is primarily connected with the expansion of Russia’s ties with Africa in principle. According to Bobokhonov, there is an objective process of promoting Russian interests on the continent in many areas – economic, political and even religious, including the activities of the Patriarchal Exarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church, which conducts missionary activities in Africa.