Serbian multi-vector policy: will the country’s authorities be able to sit on two chairs

Over the past few weeks, Serbia has been in the focus of attention of the Russian and world community. This is due to two significant and symbolic events both for Russian-Serbian relations and for the future of this Balkan country. First, it is the adoption of the Agreement on Ways to Normalize Relations between Serbia and Kosovo, prepared with the mediation of representatives of the European Union. Secondly, this is the publication of documents, photo and video materials confirming the supply of weapons by the Serbian authorities for the Ukrainian army.

The other day, the press service of the European External Action Service (EEAS) published a document agreed upon by the representatives of Serbia and Kosovo, which actually means official Belgrade’s recognition of the independence of its rebellious region and opens its way to international organizations.

Until the last moment, the issue of agreeing the document was in limbo. This situation was due to a number of factors: in particular, for the majority of citizens of Serbia, such a scenario is unacceptable – according to a sociological study published on one of the country’s most popular news agencies BLIC, in November last year, 65% of the country’s residents did not support the position that Serbia goes to the formula proposed by Germany and France. According to which, let me remind you, Kosovo will be able to acquire membership in international organizations, but at the same time, de jure, Serbia will not recognize its independence. Only 17% of the country’s citizens approve of such a formula.

But back to the document itself. Already in the preface there is a wording that levels the very essence of international law: it states that the main condition for peace is the consciousness of the inviolability of borders and respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty. Recall that on June 10, 1999, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution No. 1244, which states in black and white: Kosovo and Metohija are an integral part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (currently the Republic of Serbia); and this Resolution has not yet been canceled or replaced by another, speaking about the sovereignty and independence of Kosovo.

Even more strange is this document, given that it is replete with references and references to the UN Charter and principles.

Russia, in its consistent position on the status of Kosovo and Metohija, has once again turned out to be a greater patriot of Serbia than the Serbian authorities themselves.

The document itself is the de facto recognition of Kosovo’s independence by Serbia. It further states that the parties (i.e. Serbia and Kosovo) should develop good neighborly relations based on equal rights, that is, in essence, interstate relations. The parties agreed to mutually recognize documents and national symbols.

Separately, Article 4 states that Serbia will no longer interfere with Kosovo’s membership in international organizations. Here it is necessary to clarify the situation a little: until now, Kosovo could not claim full membership in international organizations, since, according to UN Security Council Resolution No. 1244, it is part of Serbia; but the new document actually cancels this resolution. It was this method of annulling Resolution No. 1244 that was chosen for one simple reason: if this issue were brought to a meeting of the UN Security Council, then countries such as China and Russia would most likely block its adoption, based on their consistent position on this particular situations.

Another important deception (or, if you like, understatement) lies in the discussion about the desire of the Kosovo authorities to integrate into various international organizations. In Pristina, Brussels, and, to be honest, in Belgrade, officials most often talked about gaining Kosovo membership in the UN. However, in the current conditions, it is obvious that the main vector of integration of the partially recognized entity will be directed to the North Atlantic Alliance, and this is already a threat to the national security of Serbia, and much more significant than just an independent Kosovo. And the authorities in Belgrade understand this.

The document also (but rather formally) states that the parties will not prevent each other from integrating with the European Union, although, according to recent sociological studies, there is no majority in Serbia who consider such accession necessary.

It also looks rather ambiguous wording that the parties agree to continue dialogue under the leadership of the EU regarding the creation of a comprehensive agreement to normalize relations.

Article 7 refers to guarantees for the Serbian community living in northern Kosovo and the need to formalize the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church. But, as the practice of recent decades has shown, the Pristina authorities are completely indifferent to the opinion of Serbia and the international community on these issues, and they will independently, as they please, restrict the rights and freedoms of both the Serbs living in Kosovo and the Orthodox Church.

The parties also agreed to open de facto embassies in Belgrade and Pristina, respectively, disguising them as “permanent missions.”

And at the end of the document, we are talking about financial and investment programs, as well as, as usual, the need for an EU monitoring mission, which will be called upon to assess the implementation of the agreement.

Not surprisingly, all the leading news and analytical publications loyal to the Serbian authorities came out with headlines about another victory for the Serbian president; the only problem is that the victory turned out to be pyrrhic, and the king is naked.

As my friend and colleague Dusan Prorokovic, a leading Serbian political scientist, wrote to me, “such an agreement is a betrayal of the state and another humiliation for the people.”

In conclusion, one more landmark event in Russian-Serbian relations should be mentioned. Documents, videos and photographs have appeared on the Internet that indicate that Serbian enterprises of the military-industrial complex supply weapons to Ukraine. On the one hand, unexpected news, but on the other, quite natural.

We must pay tribute, despite the colossal pressure of the countries of the collective West, Serbia did not impose sanctions against Russia, but the multi-vector policy (or, as they say in Russia, an attempt to sit on two chairs) meant surprises from the Serbian authorities.

Either voting for openly anti-Russian resolutions in international organizations, or visiting the Serbian Prime Minister and almost half of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukrainian exhibitions on the anniversary of the SVO (ignoring similar events that tell about the other side of the conflict) … In general, nothing personal, politics is politics.

What can we do against this background? Now – only to support the fraternal Serbian people and once again say that we will be together and victory will be ours!