Sectors using “extraterrestrial” technologies will triple by 2035

According to experts from McKinsey & Company and the World Economic Forum (WEF), the size of the economy using technologies obtained in connection with space exploration will increase from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.79 trillion in 2035. The bulk of this growth is expected to come from industries such as logistics and transportation, food production, national defense, trade and consumer goods, and digital communications.

The size of the global space economy (the use of resources and benefits obtained in the process of space exploration) by 2035 could reach $1.79 trillion (adjusted for inflation) versus $630 billion in 2023. This forecast is contained in a joint report of the consulting company McKinsey & Company and the World Forum. The average growth rate of the space industries will be 9% per year with the expected average annual growth of global GDP during this period at 5%.

It is expected that more than 80% of the revenue of this sector of the global economy by 2035 will be generated by seven industries. These are, in particular, transport and supplies ($412 billion versus $8 billion in 2023), where space technologies will allow for more efficient logistics; food and beverage production ($334 billion versus $100 billion) – to improve the efficiency of delivery of perishable goods; state defense ($251 billion versus $94 billion) – for surveillance systems and ensuring reliable communications.

In addition, the achievements of space technologies will be more widely used in retail and the production of consumer goods ($170 billion versus $56 billion) – for the production of consumer electronics and the provision of e-commerce services; in media, entertainment and sports ($157 billion vs. $143 billion) – to update sports tracking devices and in the online media sector. We are also talking about government services (up to $146 billion from $62 billion) – for scientific research, disaster management and environmental monitoring, as well as digital communications ($70 billion from $19 billion) – to improve the quality and coverage of communications.

In the latter case, we are talking about both “backbone” software (for example, for satellites or television) and “encompassing” software (for example, navigators). In 2023, the volume of “backbone” applications was $330 billion, “covering” — $300 billion, by 2035 these figures are expected to increase to $755 billion and $1.035 trillion, respectively. The share of “backbone” applications in the space economy will decrease by 2035 from 52.4% to 42.2%. Accordingly, the share of “covering” applications may increase from 47.6% to 57.8%. The share of the space economy held by incumbent providers of space equipment and services will gradually decline in favor of “non-traditional players” such as taxis, which would never have achieved global scale without satellite technology and the provision of navigation services, the report says.

The forecast for the global space economy to reach $1.79 trillion by 2035 is a baseline development scenario. This figure could reach $2.3 trillion – with improved access to space data and reduced costs of going into space. If access to space technologies continues to decline and ground-based solutions can provide an alternative, then the value of the global space economy will be $1.4 trillion, experts believe.

Venera Petrova