Saudi prince threatens US to end ties

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud has privately threatened the US with dire economic consequences if the Biden administration tries to punish the kingdom for its oil pricing policy. This was reported by The Washington Post.

On October 5, 2022, OPEC+ member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed on the sharpest reduction in oil production by 2 million barrels per day since 2020. Biden then expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement of Saudi Arabia with the terms of the deal, despite the already high prices for raw materials.

“There will be some consequences for what they did together with Russia (as part of the OPEC + deal – Vedomosti),” he said then in an interview with CNN, adding that he would work with Congress for this. NYT journalists then claimed that Saudi Arabia violated secret agreements with the United States on the planned increase in production.

According to WP, the Saudi prince, after public threats from the US president, made it clear that if Washington really resorts to retaliatory measures, he will “no longer deal with the US administration”, threatening them with “major economic consequences”. At the same time, it is not known whether the threat of the crown prince was directly transmitted to American officials, or whether this information was intercepted by intelligence. But the fact is that eight months later the US has not taken any measures against Riyadh.

The White House said they had not heard of such threats from Saudi Arabia. The leaked documents, according to its representatives, “represent an episode of a great story and cannot give a complete picture of the situation.”

Commenting on Riyadh’s published threats against Washington on June 9, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president, linked them to pressure exerted by the United States.

“Saudi Arabia is a sovereign state, a responsible state. A very important player in the international energy markets. Of course, this sovereign state can quite sovereignly make decisions that relate to the economy itself. And it is unlikely that anyone, even the United States, can read notations and moralizing how to be in this or that case, ”Peskov said.

It is noteworthy that the publication appeared in the American press immediately after US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held talks with bin Salman in Saudi Arabia on June 7 on a wide range of issues: from Iran and regional security to the same pricing policy in the oil sector. According to State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, the parties “reaffirmed their common commitment to strengthening stability, security and prosperity in the Middle East” and discussed issues of economic cooperation.

Riyadh’s steps periodically surprise other oil exporters: according to Reuters, citing sources, the decision of Saudi Arabia to voluntarily reduce oil production in July 2023 (from 10 million to 9 million barrels per day) came as a surprise to other OPEC + countries . At a meeting in Vienna on June 4, 13 participants in this format also agreed to extend joint restrictions on oil production in 2024.

Normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia was also one of Biden’s goals during his tour of the Middle East last year. The main reason for their deterioration was that Biden considers the crown prince guilty of the resonant murder of opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018 and even promised to make the kingdom a “rogue”.

According to Al Arabiya, the conversation did not work out a year ago – Al Saud, in response to reproaches, said that the KSA authorities had already investigated the Khashoggi case and put an end to it, and Washington should not impose values ​​on other countries.

The story told by WP has two sections – political and personal, says Sergey Demidenko, associate professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA. A complete break in relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States is impossible, since the Saudi elite is quite tightly tied to Washington both from a military-political point of view, and from a financial and economic point of view. Separately, it is worth noting the factor of huge investments in both directions, adds Demidenko.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has recently shown that it is ready to leave the orbit of US influence, as evidenced by the recent reconciliation with Iran, which was impossible for almost half a century, and even with the mediation of China. Riyadh is acting in the context that Washington itself is building: during the reign of Donald Trump, their relations were much better, but Biden again began to focus on the value factor and human rights, and, as a result, quarreled with the crown prince. According to Demidenko, Biden and Al Saud simply disliked each other. For the totality of all the reasons voiced, the tension in relations between the two countries will not go anywhere, at least as long as the current administration remains in power in the United States, the expert concludes.