Saudi Arabia may recognize Israel ahead of US presidential election

The United States and Saudi Arabia have tentatively agreed on a possible deal to normalize the kingdom’s relations with Israel. “Israel’s peace with Saudi Arabia is a matter of time,” Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Ynet on August 10. On the eve of The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing unnamed officials in the administration of the American president, said that this time is already known – a deal between the two countries can be reached within 9-12 months – before the US presidential election in 2024. But the interlocutors publications added that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is in no hurry to conclude an agreement: Riyadh demands concessions from the Israelis on the Palestinian issue.

Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have diplomatic relations precisely because of disagreements over the Palestinian settlement: Riyadh insists on the creation of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and Tel Aviv today advocates the annexation of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories and against the division of Jerusalem. But, despite the lack of diplomatic relations, the parties behind the scenes have long been cooperating in the intelligence sphere.

Earlier in 2020, as part of the “Abraham Agreement”, mediated by the US administration of Donald Trump, the UAE and Bahrain (allies of Saudi Arabia) established diplomatic relations with Israel. According to the WSJ, if Saudi-Israeli relations are normalized, the US could provide extended security guarantees to the kingdom and help advance its peaceful nuclear program. True, this aspect, noted in the publication, is puzzling in Tel Aviv, as the authorities fear that US-Saudi cooperation will strengthen the nuclear potential of the Arab state.

Commenting on the WSJ publication, John Kirby, National Security Council strategic communications coordinator, said that there is still a lot of discussion before Washington reaches its goal: “There is no agreed structure for systematizing negotiations on normalization of relations or on security issues,” Kirby continued.

On the same day, Axios, citing unnamed Israeli and American officials, reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the context of the Saudi-Israeli deal, is also seeking security guarantees for his country from the United States in the style of Article 5 in the NATO charter, under which an attack on one member of the alliance is equivalent to an attack on all its members. Security guarantees, the author of the article believes, will help contain Iran in the region. This issue, according to the publication, the Israeli prime minister casually raised during telephone conversations with US President Biden in mid-July. According to the interlocutors, Netanyahu plans to send his assistant, Secretary of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, to Washington in the near future to present this proposal in detail to congressmen and US officials.

On August 7, Netanyahu said in an interview with Bloomberg that Saudi Arabia and Israel could deepen economic and business ties even without formally recognizing each other. “I think we are about to witness a turning point in the history of our countries,” he added.

In February, Bloomberg reported on talks between the military delegations of Israel and Saudi Arabia on military and intelligence cooperation after the end of the Munich Conference.

Normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is unlikely in the near future due to serious disagreements between the parties in the approaches to settling the Palestinian problem, Israeli orientalist Alexandra Appelberg believes. “If Netanyahu is trying to dismiss this problem, then the Saudi authorities cannot do this: they traditionally present themselves as the keepers of Muslim shrines and patrons of the entire Islamic world, including the Palestinians,” the expert said. At the same time, Appelberg continues, according to public opinion polls, the inhabitants of the kingdom are much cooler about the idea of ​​normalization with Israel than in 2020, when the Abraham Accords were concluded between Israel, the UAE and other countries.

Appelberg said while Riyadh is seeking a mutual defense treaty that would oblige the US to defend the kingdom if attacked, Washington, on the contrary, wants to reduce its presence in the region. “In addition, the sale of weapons to the Gulf countries has already faced opposition in Congress due to the dubious reputation of these countries in terms of human rights. Yes, and Biden himself promised to make Saudi Arabia a “rogue state” – however, since then he has significantly softened his rhetoric, ”the expert noted.

The American peace initiative in the Middle East is primarily caused by the desire of the Democrats to get support from influential Jewish voters in the next elections, said Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute for the US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “This is important, given that about 60% of Jewish voters traditionally vote for the Democrats, and the Israeli lobby can be called the main sponsor of the party,” the expert said. Vasiliev noted that Netanyahu’s return to power complicated US-Israeli relations, since the Democrats at one time actively sought his resignation from the post of Israeli prime minister. Now, the expert continues, in order to ensure the security of Israel, its internal stability and improve relations with the Arab world, the Biden administration is promoting a draft agreement between Tel Aviv and Riyadh. “Perhaps, in this way, Washington is playing a more subtle game, the purpose of which is to increase pressure on Iran,” the expert believes.