Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal could bring our country a billion dollars

– Let’s start with the fact that Russia has not completely closed the door to the grain deal, – says Korbut, – If our requirements and conditions are met, we will return to it. The conditions are well known: in particular, the connection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT system, the unblocking of transport logistics, the supply of spare parts for agricultural machinery … The issue has been resolved on the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which was destroyed by the Ukrainian side. By December, we will redirect ammonia along another route: Tolyatti-Taman.

– Western politicians and the media, of course, blame Moscow for the failure of the deal, blaming our country for the “imminent threat of famine” …

– When the West shouts that Moscow has ruined everything and the world will now disappear, this is speculation. Western partners are behaving, from my point of view, like thimblers who have taken away the ball in a glass.

Now about the consequences. Most likely, the prices for grains and sunflower oil in the world will rise. However, their growth will be insignificant. Yesterday, July 17, on the stock exchange in Chicago for wheat, they first squeezed up, and then fell sharply below the starting level.

You have to wait a week or two. Let’s take into account that at the beginning of the season, wheat prices always rise – both in our country and in the world. They reach up to 400 or more dollars per ton. And now they are 240-250. For the global market, this is not at all critical, especially since grain prices in the world have been steadily declining for 5 months in a row.

– Suppose prices rise a little – is it good or bad for Russia?

– First of all, it will increase export prices. And our country is one of the largest grain exporters. Over the past agricultural season, we delivered more than 60 million tons, which is close to domestic consumption in Russia. If export prices rise, the purchase prices from domestic agricultural producers will also increase. Our peasants will have a little more money, because the floating duty eats up their income. Although the fees are likely to rise too.

– Who will be the main beneficiary in such a situation? Who will receive the income: the state, exporters or manufacturers?

– Here you can not oppose anyone to anyone. The state will benefit from higher export prices through duties. Exporters will at least keep their margins, and maybe even increase them. Margins have been record high lately, making grain exports very attractive. Part of the money will go to the peasants. It is fundamentally important for us that domestic farmers increase profitability. Exports and incomes are not possible if there is no efficient production.

– I understand that the discount with which we used to trade on the world market is canceled when we exit the grain deal?

– What is a discount? This is the difference between the prices for French wheat (as a rule, it is taken as a basis) and Russian. Before all these events, our bread was always sold at a premium to French, with a plus. We sold more expensive and bought from us. We have not dumped on the grain market, we have not been doing this for the last 15 years.

– And what about the current export sales and big discounts? How much has been written and said about them!

– This is not dumping, but a forced measure. Sanctions against Russian food, which allegedly do not exist, actually existed. Both in terms of mutual settlements with partners, and in terms of the cost of cargo insurance … Accordingly, buyers told us that, for example, in France, wheat is more expensive, but there are no risks. We had to give a discount. Imagine: we shipped 60 million tons of grain with different discounts – from 10 to 70 dollars per ton. If we take the average value of $ 20, then we lost more than a billion. Accordingly, now, after the end of the transaction, these funds will flow into our economy. This is very good!

– Let’s assume that Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal does not threaten with unpleasant consequences. But what about the needy countries, the starving African continent?

– Let’s put it this way: we supplied crops to African and other distressed countries both before the grain deal and during it, and we will continue to deliver. And we ship more than Ukraine. It has one of the largest buyers of grain – Bangladesh, 1.1 million tons. And we sold 1.6 million there. Feel the difference! Plus, we are actively shipping to Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia…

In addition, in order to “lay straws” to African countries, a decision was made to allocate 10 million dollars to them for the purchase of Russian grain. For recipients, this is a free product, in fact, humanitarian aid.

– And what opportunities and resources does Ukraine retain in terms of its grain exports?

– Last season there the situation was very difficult. Due to the high harvest, Ukraine has accumulated huge carry-over stocks. But they unloaded this grain, about 33 million tons went by sea in the grain deal. Part was taken out along the land corridor. Part to Romania, and from there by large ships to other consumers.

It should be noted that Ukraine dumped prices terribly, dropping 40-50 dollars more per ton than Russia. Although, as I said, our dumping was a necessary measure. This year, the harvest in Ukraine will be objectively lower, and, accordingly, the export potential will also be. I think that they will be able to export significant volumes via the land corridor, especially since significant deliveries were made to the EU countries.