Russia’s share in wheat trade will reach 25%

The grain harvest in the Russian Federation (excluding the harvest in annexed territories) at the end of this year may amount to 144 million tons, as follows from the review “Results 2023: Grain Market” by the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). The harvest estimate from Rosstat published this week is slightly lower – 142.6 million tons. Both figures are noticeably lower than last year’s record level of 157.6 million tons.

ICAR expects wheat production this year to be 91.6 million tons after 104.2 million tons last year, Rosstat – 92.8 million tons. The organizations’ estimates of the barley harvest coincide and amount to 21 million tons (23.4 million tons last year). ICAR believes that corn harvest will be a record in 2023 – 17.5 million tons after 15.8 million in 2022. Rosstat’s forecast is noticeably more modest – 14.4 million tons. This discrepancy is explained by the fact that reports from farms were collected by Rosstat in early December, when more than 400 thousand hectares of this crop remained unharvested in the fields.

During the first half of the agricultural season (July-December), the Russian Federation, according to ICAR estimates, exported a record 36.7 million tons after 29.8 million tons for the same period in 2022. Wheat exports tentatively amounted to 26.9 million tons (23.8 million tons a year earlier), barley – 4.4 million tons (3.3 million tons), corn – 2.7 million tons (1.2 million tons). The Russian Federation’s share in world wheat trade this season may increase to 25% (22% last year). For comparison: the projected share of the EU is 11%, the US and Canada together are 20%.

In order to prevent a reduction in supplies in conditions of overstocking of the domestic market, from 2024 the government will allow exporters to waive part of their grain export quotas and will redistribute the “surplus” among other suppliers (for more details, see Kommersant on April 20). Although the volume of supplies abroad at the end of the agricultural season may become a record (67 million tons, according to ICAR forecasts), grain reserves are also expected to be serious by the end of June 2024 – 21 million tons. This, we note, is the third figure in the entire history of observations; the record was set at the end of last season, when, due to a record harvest and difficulties with exports, reserves amounted to 24.5 million tons. From the ICAR review it follows that grain reserves in the state fund may become the highest over the past 12 years.

Kristina Borovikova