Russia’s hybrid response to the raid on the airport in Pskov: there are options

A drone raid on the airfield in Pskov, damage to our aircraft – this is a situation in which everything is clear to everyone, but it is better not to voice this understanding aloud so that it does not get worse. It is clear that Ukraine is far from Pskov, and Estonia is at arm’s length. But how to hit them on the hands?

It is obvious that all the muck that flies to us should formally at least fly from the territory of Ukraine. Because the launch point, the launch country, automatically becomes a legitimate military target.

What if it’s a NATO country? And they have Article 5 there – they say, an attack on one is an attack on everyone, and now we will all fall together …

This article, of course, has reservations – it does not automatically work for war (each of the countries will provide assistance that it deems necessary), but the risk is still very high. Plus, the “accused” can always point his finger at the Kiev regime and some “partisans” – they say, sorry, we have nothing to do with it, a Ukrainian group penetrated our land and launched something across Russia, we are very sorry.

In the case of the Russophobic Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaya Kallas, it’s hard not to put two and two together. First, she is accused of her husband doing business with Russia (in May, Kaya Kallas demanded that entrepreneurs find a “moral compass” and not do business with the Russian Federation), she makes excuses, the poor husband is forced to give up business, but still, the sediment remains , the premier’s chair staggers. But it can be assumed that the revealed business of “old man Kallas” did not just happen, it was a blackmail operation. What to do, how to prove your devotion to Russophobia? And then the Russian airfield in Pskov comes under attack. Kaya Kallas smiles enigmatically, is silent. Kaya Kallas is back on horseback.

What to do? Blame directly? Of course, Vladimir Volfovich once prophesied that Warsaw and Vilnius would burn. But he did not say that he would burn in this case with us and whether our government was ready for such an escalation.

Leave everything as it is, in the hope that it will resolve itself? In this case, there is no hope – the problem will not disappear. And without a response, it will only get worse.

But you can, for example, help Kaya Kallas in search of a “moral compass” for breaking ties with Russia. The Reuters agency, citing data from the Baltic customs, reported that last year Russia doubled its total sales of autogas to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – from 159,000 tons to 331,000 tons. Do we really want cars to be filled there and houses to be heated with our gas?

Of course, in general, the transshipment of Russian cargo through the ports of the Baltic countries has decreased. But, for example, according to the specialized portal Portnews, the volume of transshipment of Russian ore through the ports of the Baltic states increased by more than a quarter, to 1.78 million tons, and metals – by 2.7 times, to 427 thousand tons.

Formally, there is a ban on the import of Russian wood in the Baltic States, but local dealers circumvent the restrictions with the help of false invoices, and Henrik Välja, director general of the Estonian Forestry and Woodworking Industry Union, directly sounds the alarm about the sale of plywood from Russia.

Well, it’s funny: only this summer in Estonia they found out that the Estonian army is supplied with tea produced in Russia. So isn’t it time to stop all this Russian-Baltic “tea drinking”? Sanctions is a game that can be played together. Especially when you are in a winning position beforehand. Moreover, there is experience – Russian counter-sanctions after the “Crimean spring” sent the Baltic dairy industry into a deep knockdown.

We should not forget that the conflict is a hybrid one. And if, for example, in Estonia now something accidentally explodes, burns or collapses, then we have absolutely nothing to do with it. This is a situation where everything is clear to everyone.