Russians look to the future with optimism, but without specifics

The majority of citizens associate modern Russia with traditionalism, multinationality and strong statehood, sociologists from the Center for Socio-Political Research and Information Technologies of the Russian State University for the Humanities have found out. At the same time, experts have not identified a single integrating value that Russians would like to carry into the future: the leading positions here are taken by human rights and freedoms, which are close to democrats, and popular unity, which is demanded by conservatives. However, the vague image of the future does not prevent half of the respondents from looking into it with optimism.

The August survey, designed to determine the prevailing images of the present and future in the minds of Russians, involved 2,300 respondents. The study “aims to identify the qualitative characteristics that Russians attribute to their country, their ideas about the priorities of state development and expectations from the future of Russia,” the authors explained. The position of citizens was identified using an online panel survey, and intermediate conclusions were drawn during 15 interviews with subject matter experts.

When characterizing the present, 60% of respondents drew some historical parallels. Thus, 24% associated the modern period with the harsh times of the Napoleonic, First World and Great Patriotic Wars. Another 21% pointed to years of “instability, unrest and civil upheaval”, 13% – to eras of annexation of new territories, 8% each – to periods of tightening order and a “strong hand” or active development and reforms (Peter I and Alexander II). Finally, 32% considered our time “unique” and unparalleled in the past. “The current moment is not perceived as a continuation of one of the schemes from the past, which means that investing at the state level in the “resurrection” of these schemes is inappropriate,” sociologists emphasized. “There is also no dominant demand for a strong hand and tightening the screws.”

Russians generally assessed the current moment positively: 43% are confident that the country is accumulating strength before the rise, and 21% believe that the rise is happening right now. A little more than a quarter of respondents spoke negatively: 11% called the current state of affairs “stagnation”, 9% – “decline”, 8% – “loss of development impulses and loss of strength before decline.”

Among the value characteristics inherent in modern Russia, respondents identified “strong customs and traditions” (88%), conditions for multinationality and multi-confessionalism (78%), and movement towards strengthening statehood, authority and power (77%). 75% each described the country as “modern” and “developing.” “In addition to following state rhetoric, these responses are also due to the objective recognition that Russia is an integrator state of different peoples and territories,” the researchers explained these data.

Negative connotations flashed through the responses of a third of respondents: 34% described the country as “unstable and unpredictable”, 31% as “poor”, 30% each as “authoritarian” and “indifferent to the quality of life of its citizens”, 29% as “ conservative.” “The share of respondents who negatively assess these parameters significantly exceeds the share of the opposition electorate,” experts noted. “Thus, there is a significant group of citizens who are loyal to the authorities, but dissatisfied with the current situation.”

Among the values ​​that should be strengthened and protected first of all, there were both conditionally conservative (85% of respondents chose at least one of them) and conditionally democratic (67%). The most mentioned values ​​were “human rights and freedoms” (42%) and “justice” (35%). The same 35% of mentions were given to “national unity”, 32% to “patriotism”, 31% to “traditional relations between men and women and the institution of family”, 29% to “historical memory”, 28% to “territorial integrity”. 13% each spoke in favor of “democracy” and “the rule of law,” and 12% called for protecting “the strength and authority of state power.” “No single value stands out as integrative and enjoys exceptional public support,” the study authors concluded.

62% of respondents are looking forward to a joyful future; thoughts about the future provoke anxiety, excitement and fear in 34% of respondents. 54% expect the socio-economic situation to improve to one degree or another, 28% of respondents have a different opinion. At the same time, negative premonitions are “closely connected” with a citizen’s emotional assessment of his belonging to the country: critics of the present do not see prerequisites for improving the situation.

Finally, judging by the presented cloud of tags, most of all from the Russia of the future, people expect “stability”, “peaceful skies”, “free high-quality medicine” and “welfare of citizens”. Less popular queries include “lack of corruption”, “high salaries”, “change of power”, “growth of industry”, “unity” and “democracy”.

Grigory Leiba