Russian engineering imports grew by almost a third over three quarters

For the first time since March 2023, the Federal Customs Service (FCS) published data on foreign trade in goods, including country and industry breakdowns. Asia became the main market for Russian exports over the three quarters; exports to Europe, mainly raw materials, fell by almost 70%. Imports of machinery and equipment over the same three quarters increased by 32.8% compared to the same period in 2022. Among major items this year, imports did not decrease in monetary terms—to what extent sanctions forced Russian companies to pay more for the same goods, and to what extent they reoriented to cheaper imports from Asia, cannot be understood from the FCS data.

In addition to general export and import figures for nine months, the Federal Customs Service yesterday published a breakdown by main areas and supply structure. Data on foreign trade have been closed since April 2022; the Federal Customs Service announced their partial resumption in March of this year, but then only data on the export-import of goods for 2022 and January 2023 were shown, after which publication stopped. From new customs data it follows that Russian exports over three quarters decreased by 29.4%, to $316.9 billion, compared to the same period in 2022, while imports increased by 18.3%, to $213.3 billion. As a result, the trade balance shrank two and a half times – to $103.6 billion. In 2022, we recall that exports grew by 14%, exceeding the highest value of 2013, while imports decreased by 9%, which provided a record high surplus of $268.6 billion (for comparison: in 2021 the balance was $170.1 billion).

The reorientation of supplies to Asian markets, as follows from the Federal Customs Service data, continued. Exports to Europe fell by almost 70%, to $65.3 billion, primarily due to the embargo on imports of Russian oil and petroleum products. Supplies to Asia, on the contrary, increased by another 10%. Now this is the main market for the Russian Federation – $226.6 billion. Exports to Africa increased from $10.1 billion to $15.6 billion. Finally, supplies to American countries decreased by almost half – to $9.3 billion.

The structure of export supplies reflects an increase in the share of non-energy exports – the export of mineral resources against the backdrop of the European embargo, ceilings on prices for oil and petroleum products introduced by the G7 countries, and weak demand in the first half of the year decreased by 36.3% year-on-year, to $191. 4 billion. Let us recall that the introduction of a “ceiling” limited access to the use of foreign vessels for transporting Russian oil, and reorientation to Asian markets led to record discounts of Russian grades to Brent. The recovery in global oil prices was noted only in July, after Saudi Arabia reduced its own production by 1 million barrels per day in excess of OPEC+ quotas.

Over three quarters, chemical industry exports also decreased (minus 37%, to $20.2 billion). Supplies of metals fell less significantly – by 10.1%, to $48.2 billion, and engineering exports shrank by 23.4% – to $15.9 billion. This drop was partially compensated by an increase in exports of agricultural products. It grew by 11%, to $32.3 billion—for wheat, sunflower oil, and pollock, the Russian Federation turned out to be the world’s main exporter. According to the results of the last agricultural year (July 1, 2022 – June 30, 2023), farmers managed to export a record 60 million tons of grain from the country. And this year the record may be repeated.

The Federal Customs Service does not provide data for previous periods (except for January), so only statistics published by the Central Bank are available on a monthly basis. In September, she pointed to an increase in the trade surplus from August $10.6 billion to $15.3 billion – this was due to an increase in exports by $4 billion, to $40 billion. Imports were declining, but slowly (by August – minus $718 million, to $24 .7 billion). Let us note that it was the improvement in the trade balance that should have supported the ruble: the exchange rate has been strengthening since the second half of October, including after the introduction of requirements for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings for large exporters. This dynamics, however, may be affected by a new wave of decline in commodity prices – if this trend turns out to be stable. Thus, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil exports in October decreased by 70 thousand barrels per day (b/d) – to 7.5 million b/d, while the increase in oil exports did not compensate for the decrease in supplies of petroleum products. Export revenue fell by $25 million to $18.34 billion, the effect of lower global prices being more significant than the continuing reduction in the discount on Russian grades compared to Brent crude. The average price of Russian supplies in October decreased from $81.8 per barrel to $80.7 per barrel. However, the IEA, as well as OPEC, assesses the overall market prospects optimistically, simultaneously citing the growth in consumption in China, as well as the persistence of supply shortages in the face of voluntary restrictions.

Import statistics of the Russian Federation for three quarters of 2023 are also given in two presentations – country and sector. In the first, according to the Federal Customs Service, an 18.3% year-on-year increase in imports in January-September was ensured, as expected, by an increase in supplies from Asia – it exceeded the 2022 figure ($100 billion) by 39.7% and amounted to $139. 5 billion. Imports from EU countries this year fell by an additional 8.7% – numerous packages of EU sanctions did not introduce anything new into trade with Europe: it remains the second largest macro-region – a partner for trade with the Russian Federation and its exports to Russia for three quarter amounted to $59.2 billion (a significant amount for the trade balance of the Russian Federation and a minor one for the EU). The same drop in imports from the Americas ($11.4 billion, mainly, apparently, from the USA: the breakdown of the Federal Customs Service does not include North and South America) does not change anything in the situation.

In the industry dimension, the Federal Customs Service data are not very informative. Of all imports of $213.3 billion over three quarters, the largest group of goods imported from abroad is machinery and equipment, that is, the subject of the most stringent sanctions by the EU, USA, Japan and Canada since the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. The volume of their imports increased by 32.8% and amounted to a record $107.9 billion over three quarters. Chemical products follow. Its import into the Russian Federation increased by 2.5% year on year and amounted to $42 billion. Imports of metals and metal products ($14.5 billion) increased over the same period by 1.3%. Imports of textiles and goods of the same group into the Russian Federation (clothing, shoes, total – $14.8 billion) increased by 26.5%.

The lack of a physical measurement of FCS import volumes makes it impossible to assess to what extent supplies to the Russian Federation are growing due to rising prices, and to what extent due to changes in supply volumes (including their possible growth due to a decrease in manufacturability or product quality). In any case, a significant increase in purchases of machinery and equipment demonstrates that investment plans in the Russian Federation are being fully implemented, including through imports – given that the production of investment goods in Russia also at least did not decrease, their increased imports clearly did not suppress domestic production.

Tatiana Edovina, Dmitry Butrin