Russian budget revenues from carbon fees may exceed 4% of GDP – Kommersant

Possible revenues to the Russian budget from the introduction of a mandatory payment from business for greenhouse gas emissions in the form of a carbon tax or a carbon trading system could reach up to 4.3–4.4% of GDP in 2030. This is the maximum among all countries. This forecast prepared experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in an article dated November 21. Pay attention to him RBC.

Typically, net budget revenues from the introduction of carbon regulation mechanisms range from 0.5 to 2% of GDP, the IMF article says. High-income countries have lower emissions than upper-middle-income countries because the former have lower emissions.

According to IMF experts, for Russia, revenues from carbon regulation may be the largest among all the countries analyzed. The second largest income from such fees can be received by China and Saudi Arabia – in the range of between 2 and 3% of GDP. US revenues are estimated at 1% of GDP, EU – around zero.

The greatest contribution to Russia’s possible revenues can come from carbon levies from industry. The rest of the revenue comes from carbon fees from the electricity generation, transport and buildings sectors.

In the calculation, the IMF used its CPAT tool, which is a carbon pricing assessment tool developed jointly with the World Bank). The IMF notes that carbon pricing is a necessary condition for achieving the climate goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to keep the increase in global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to IMF experts, countries’ revenues from carbon regulation by 2030 can more than compensate for the erosion of the revenue base from lower fuel tax collections during decarbonization.

In Russia there is currently no mandatory charge for carbon emissions for businesses. The Low Carbon Development Strategy until 2050, adopted in 2021, names such a mechanism as one of the possible measures.

An experiment to achieve carbon neutrality by the end of 2025 is now being introduced in the Sakhalin region. In September, carbon quotas were established in the region for 35 companies with emissions exceeding 20 thousand tons of CO2 per year. The fee for exceeding the quota will be 1 thousand rubles. per ton of CO2.

Anastasia Larina