Russia will leave poor countries without bread: what threatens the fall in productivity

Vasily Uzun: “We will provide the domestic market, but importers will have a very difficult time”

Grain losses in Russia in 2022 may reach 15% of the possible harvest. This was announced by the President of the Russian Grain Union (RGU) Arkady Zlochevsky. According to him, the main reason for the drop in yields is heavy rains. Will Russia be able to meet the needs of its own market? What problems will importing countries face? What will happen to prices? This was told to MK by the chief researcher of the Center for Agricultural Policy of the RANEPA, economist Vasily Uzun.

– Such losses will not have any significant impact on the Russian domestic market. But export volumes will suffer. In our country, we will leave as much grain as we need, since we produce much more than we consume. Meanwhile, deliveries to other states will be reduced.

– Which countries are at risk of being left without Russian grain?

– The danger is that there will be little grain on the world market. The disadvantage will be especially noticeable in those countries where bread is made from Russian wheat. For example, in Egypt, two-thirds of the diet is bread. They get half of this bread from Russian grain. This is very significant. Poor buyer countries will not receive the necessary volumes of goods: the less grain, the more expensive it is. They just don’t have that kind of money.

– How to act in this situation?

– Recently, the list of the main threats to the food supply of the planet included a ban on the export of grain. Indeed, this is an important factor, but we must not forget about another. Russia has a lot of imported agricultural machinery. Every harvester, every tractor that we have imported needs to be serviced. Now this is a problem. If this technique stops working, the harvest time will be extended, the wheat will remain in the field. When harvesting with poor technique, losses will increase. The problem is not only in fertilizers and in the possibility of exporting grain. We need to think about the fact that it is impossible to leave the machinery that is used in the production of food without the necessary maintenance. Otherwise, you will have to remember the Soviet times, when combines were bad, of poor quality. Then the losses during grain harvesting were huge – 15-20%. Someday we will replace all the equipment, but it will take a very long time.