Russia was offered a new privatization: will the experience of the nineties be repeated?

If you think that we have done away with the privatization of state property once and for all, then you are deeply mistaken. She was again talked about in Russia – and not somewhere at a spontaneous rally or on social networks, but at the highest financial level. Its necessity is substantiated by statesmen with state thinking.

Andrey Kostin, Chairman of the Board of VTB, proposed a new stage of privatization – “to ensure a new model of economic growth against the background of the imposed sanctions.” The logic of the prominent state banker is clear: the development of the economy requires money and investment. There is nowhere for the authorities to take them in the current difficult conditions. Privatization – the sale of state property into private hands – is one of the few possible options.

I must say that this proposal for some Russian politicians and public figures sounded like a bolt from the blue. Indeed, lately they have been loudly advocating, on the contrary, for the deprivatization of state property, the complete nationalization of the economy according to the Soviet model, and with an unkind word they recall one of the “fathers” of privatization – Anatoly Chubais (who left Russia a year ago) with his vouchers.

And suddenly, instead of reviewing the results of that distant privatization, returning the tidbits of the economy to the state, there are calls for a new wave of privatization. How to understand all this?

Most likely, you need to understand in such a way that the proposal was made at the right time and in the right place. As you know, Andrey Kostin is a man of the system, for a long time he manages the second largest state bank (VTB) in the country, has personal access to the first persons of the state and is unlikely to bring his idea to the public without discussing all the pros and cons with ” mighty of this world.” So, it is quite possible that his words are a kind of “trial balloon”: how will society react to the idea?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has already said that a new wave of privatization is not being discussed in the Kremlin. However, he called the idea of ​​the head of VTB “a very interesting point of view.”

Why should we again arrange auctions for the sale of state property? According to independent experts, about 18% of state-owned fixed assets have not yet gone under the hammer.

Unlike some of his colleagues, Andrei Kostin is convinced that the transfer of state property to private hands on transparent market conditions is a tool that has proven its effectiveness. And that without significant risks to the domestic financial system, the country’s economy can additionally receive about 70 trillion rubles.

PhD in economics, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev agrees that today it is important for the state to receive additional money – through public debt. The spheres of use of these funds, in his opinion, are also correctly defined: infrastructure projects, advanced technologies, import substitution, and the defense industry.

But further, with the second source of financing of investment projects, that is, the privatization itself, he does not agree.

– The head of VTB proceeds from the thesis that private enterprises are managed more efficiently than state-owned ones, – he explains. – No one has proven this anywhere. Then what to sell? We have small and medium-sized businesses and have been privately owned for so long. We are talking about large-scale productions and one can roughly guess which ones. Here it is necessary to worry about the defense and economic sovereignty of the country. These positions cannot be transferred to private hands. They must be under state control.

Belyaev considers the idea of ​​privatization unacceptable also for the reason that the income from it will be one-time and, most likely, the last, since there will be nothing more to privatize.

Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is also skeptical about the new wave of privatization, but for different reasons.

– Let’s put ourselves in the place of a potential investor who can buy a state-owned object, – he says. – Will he do it in conditions of high uncertainty of the economic situation? Here, the investor will measure not 7 times before cutting off, but 10 times. Unless they make him an offer he can’t refuse.

– But in the 1990s, privatization also took place in conditions of uncertainty, uncertainty about the future. And no matter what they say about it today, it gave a certain impetus to the development of the country …

– At that time, economic sanctions were not imposed on our country, the market was open and needed any goods. Now, for the same reasons, it is difficult to make sales forecasts. I’m not sure that foreign partners are also interested in such acquisitions – even from friendly countries. After all, many global brands are leaving the Russian market before their eyes. In my opinion, the proposal is untimely.