Russia refused dollars in international settlements: the economist doubted the thesis of the Ministry of Finance

“The share of the ruble in mutual settlements has grown, but the dollar has not gone anywhere”

Russian companies have almost completely abandoned international settlements in dollars. And the share of settlements in euros is insignificant and is coming to naught, said Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev. Meanwhile, independent experts urge not to rush to such conclusions.

According to a representative of the Ministry of Finance, cross-border payments “ruble – dollar” are almost never seen: this is no longer a systemic phenomenon, but only individual episodes. A similar situation is associated with the blocking of Russian accounts abroad, a long check of payments for compliance with sanctions, as well as the reluctance to use such a currency, since it simply may not reach the addressee. Moiseev added that, finally, on the Moscow Exchange, the turnover in soft currencies reached a mark “which more or less corresponds to the level of trade relations.” At the same time, less active growth compared to other currencies of friendly countries is observed in the ruble-rupee pair, which is due to regulatory restrictions in India.

“If you look at the statistics of international trade settlements, then yes, our share of the ruble has grown quite significantly, here we can agree with the Ministry of Finance,” says leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies, economist Nikita Maslennikov. – But at the same time, there is no sharp decline in the share of dollars and euros. In the case of China and India, Russia’s two largest partners, the transition to mutual settlements in national currencies has largely taken place. But this does not mean that there are no problems here. For example, settlements in yuan and rubles are possible only within the framework of bilateral trade with China, and it will no longer be possible to pay them, for example, with Vietnam. With India, where our export deliveries quadrupled in 2022, it is not yet possible to fully establish a payment and settlement turnover in national currencies (rubles and rupees), largely due to the peculiarities of local currency legislation, which is very tough and cumbersome. To change the situation, it needs to be amended, and the Indian monetary authorities are clearly not eager to do this.

In addition, Maslennikov argues, secondary sanctions are starting to work. There have already been several episodes, in particular, the United Arab Emirates once blocked our payments, Kazakhstan segregates accounts in its depositories, separating the accounts of Russians and Belarusians from the rest. Plus, according to the Institute. Gaidar, about 20% of Russian industrial enterprises still prefer to receive equipment and technologies from “unfriendly” countries. That is, they are not going to refuse from their traditional imports. Naturally, deliveries from the US and Europe take a roundabout way and are more expensive, because this is a gray area. And here you can’t do without dollars and euros. So the “individual episodes” mentioned by Moiseev are quite widespread today.