Russia is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, in a statement released on March 26, demanded that a meeting of the UN Security Council be convened to discuss plans for deploying nuclear arsenals in Belarus. Josep Borrell, head of the European Union’s foreign policy service, said that the EU would be ready to impose new sanctions if Russia deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The Polish Foreign Ministry condemned Russia’s plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, calling it “an increased threat to peace in Europe and around the world,” writes PAP, while the German Foreign Ministry called Putin’s statement “an ongoing attempt at nuclear intimidation.” Officially, the United States and its allies do not disclose the number of nuclear weapons deployed at bases in Europe. According to various sources, including the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and the Washington-based NPO Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, five European countries – Turkey, Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands – had about 100 nuclear US warheads (hydrogen bombs type B61). In October 2022, Politico reported on the acceleration of nuclear rearmament in Europe due to the conflict in Ukraine – the arrival of the upgraded B61-12 bomb was expected in December 2022. This information was not confirmed by the Pentagon. A new stage of escalation due to the agreement between Russia and Belarus should not be expected, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, believes. In military terms, the decision does not make much sense, but rather has a symbolic meaning – Russia, like the United States, can deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of third countries, the expert says. At the same time, Moscow has previously criticized this approach many times, and therefore one should either wait for an explanation why this is a different development of events, or adjust Russia’s position on the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of third countries in general, Stefanovich notes. However, the possibility is not ruled out that after the completion of the preparations, the actual movement of nuclear warheads outside the territory of Russia will not happen, the analyst admits. In theory, US nuclear weapons may also appear east of Germany as a response, although so far the expert does not see Washington’s desire to take such drastic steps. To equip the declared number of Belarusian carriers, an order of magnitude less nuclear munitions are needed than those stored by the United States in Europe, and the Su-25 attack aircraft has a shorter range than NATO carriers, says a source close to the Ministry of Defense. This indicates that the actions of Russia and Belarus are calculated and minimal in nature, caused by the buildup of NATO forces in Eastern Europe, he says. The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is primarily a political gesture, showing that Russia considers it possible for itself to do what the United States allows itself, says the head of the Russian Strategic Nuclear Arms project, senior fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (Geneva) Pavel Feat. In addition, it is likely that the leaders of Russia and Belarus thus demonstrate their readiness for close military cooperation between the two countries, he admits. The expert does not believe that this step will lead to a noticeable escalation of tension, although it is difficult to call it a positive development. It should be borne in mind that for the time being, deployment remains only a theoretical possibility, and in any case, nuclear weapons will remain under the complete control of Russia, Podvig notes. In addition, the Russian practice of deploying non-strategic weapons allows for the possibility that nuclear weapons will be permanently based on Russian territory. In this case, the storage facility being built in Belarus can only be used for temporary storage when the troops are put on high alert, the expert explains. A permanent deployment option is also possible, but building a safe storage facility can take quite a long time, says Podvig. At the same time, the expert does not expect reciprocal steps from NATO and the United States to the decision of Moscow and Minsk.