During the week from November 13 to November 19, Russia reduced oil exports by sea to 2.7 million barrels per day ahead of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 26. This is the lowest value since August. Compared to the previous week, the level of exports by sea decreased by 580 thousand bpd, reports Bloomberg with reference to vessel traffic data.
A meeting of OPEC+ energy ministers will be held in Vienna and will focus on how to respond to weakening oil market prospects. It is also expected to set production targets for 2024, the agency recalls.
As Bloomberg reports, the average volume of Russian oil exports for the four weeks (until November 19) is less volatile and amounts to 3.23 million bpd. This is approximately 200 thousand b/d less than in the period before November 12, and is the lowest figure in eight weeks. At the same time, according to the agency’s calculations, the volume of oil refining in Russia until November 15 increased to the highest level in almost three months.
Bloomberg notes that the analyzed data does not take into account the supply of Kazakh KEBCO oil, which Kaztransoil JSC exports through Novorossiysk and the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. These cargoes are not subject to EU sanctions. The agency claims that Kazakh oil is being mixed with Russian oil to create a single grade for export.
According to the agency, in the four weeks before November 19, Russia supplied the most oil by sea to China (about 1.19 million bpd) and India (1 million bpd). At the same time, the calculations did not take into account the supplies of about 510 thousand b/d, which went to the Egyptian port of Suez or the South Korean port of Yeosu. Bloomberg claims that these cargoes will apparently go to China and India.
According to the agency's calculations, the average income from oil duties for the week from November 13 to November 19 was $68 million, and for the four weeks before November 19 - $78 million. This is the lowest level of Russian treasury income from maritime supplies over the past two months, Bloomberg reports.
In early August, Russia extended a voluntary reduction in oil exports by 300 thousand bpd below the average for May-June. These restrictions were extended in early November. At the same time, in October, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the reduction in supplies would affect both oil and petroleum products.
On November 17, Bloomberg, citing data from a study conducted by the Kyiv School of Economics, reportedthat in October, more than 99% of Russian seaborne oil supplies were sold at a price exceeding the oil ceiling set by the G7 countries at $60 per barrel. On the same day, Reuters, citing two traders reportedthat the price of Russian Urals oil in Baltic Sea ports has fallen below the price ceiling. Agency interlocutors statedthat this happened due to US sanctions against the Russian “shadow fleet”, which supplies oil bypassing sanctions against the Russian Federation.
About the current situation in the oil market - in the material “OPEC is rolling the barrel uphill”.